US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or more in a winter month
The test The EIA's monthly average Henry Hub natural gas spot price is US$5.00 per MMBtu or more for at least one month from November 2026 to March 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Working gas was 3,644 Bcf on 16 Oct 2026, 1.0% above the five-year average and 4.0% below a year earlier. [4]
- Henry Hub averaged US$4.26 in Dec 2025, US$7.72 in Jan 2026, US$3.62 in Feb 2026 and US$2.95 in Sep 2026. [1]
- NOAA CPC favours above-normal winter temperatures across a northern band from the Pacific Northwest through the Midwest and much of the East; it calls the El Nino very strong, Nino3.4 +2.4C, with an 80% chance at least a strong event lasts through January-March 2027. [6]
- The US energy index rose 20.4% in the year to September 2026. [9]
- EIA expects end-October stocks of 3,850 Bcf, 2% above the five-year average; dry gas output 112.20 Bcf/d in 2026 and 116.13 in 2027. [3]
- US LNG exports 15.1 Bcf/d in 2025, 17.6 in 2026, 18.6 in 2027; Henry Hub US$3.48 in 2026 and US$3.16 in 2027. [2]
- US pipeline gas exports to Mexico were 2,422,839 MMcf in 2025, about 6.6 Bcf/d. [10]
Why it matters
It happened last winter: Henry Hub averaged US$7.72 in January 2026 during winter storm Fern, though stocks were above normal. This winter starts with stocks 1.0% above the five-year average, more output and a mild northern outlook, but LNG exports rising to 17.6 Bcf/d in 2026, from 15.1 in 2025. A spike would raise US heating and power bills; Canada's exporters would gain and its importers pay more.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: LNG exports 17.6 Bcf/d in 2026 against 15.1 in 2025. Brakes: EIA path US$3.48 for 2026; output rising; NOAA favours a warm northern band this winter.
Why Impact 5 Key price Henry Hub monthly average; US$5.00 against US$2.95, the latest monthly average on the scoring date. One major good; storage.
The other facts on file (4)
- Winter Storm Fern drove a record 360 Bcf storage withdrawal in the week ending 30 Jan 2026; the Henry Hub spot price reached US$9.03 on 28 Jan. [11] (5 Feb 2026)
- Canada imported 2.5 Bcf/d of gas in 2025, 92.4% of it from the US, worth C$3.6bn. [7] (27 May 2026)
- On 21 Jan 2026 the spot price was US$4.98; in the week ending 16 Jan stocks were 6% above the five-year average. [5] (22 Jan 2026)
- US natural gas imports from Canada were worth 52% more in 2025 than in 2024. [8] (5 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- US natural gas (Henry Hub) averages US$5 per MMBtu or more in a winter monthImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · United States
How it spreads
The EIA's monthly average Henry Hub natural gas spot price is US$5.00 per MMBtu or more for at least one month from November 2026 to March 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaExporters of 8.6 Bcf/d (worth C$12.5bn in 2025) gain; buyers of 2.5 Bcf/d of imports (worth C$3.6bn) pay more [7].
- US households and powerA month at or above the threshold passes into heating and power bills within weeks (Strature's view).
- LNG buyersHenry Hub-linked cargoes cost more in Europe and Asia in a tight winter (Strature's view).
- Inflation and the FedAdds to an energy index already up 20.4% in a year [9].
Who is exposed
- Countries
- United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Germany, United Kingdom
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- LNG
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Mild El Nino winter
Stocks stay above average and prices hold near the EIA path.
- S2
One hard cold snap
A storm like Fern drives one monthly average to US$5 or more while LNG plants run flat out.
- S3
Cold plus outages
Freeze-offs and a pipeline or plant failure keep prices high for two months.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Storage still above the five-year average in EIA's January 2027 reports |
| S2 | A weekly withdrawal far above average, or a spot price near US$5 |
| S3 | The STEO raises its 1Q 2027 price |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 4 Nov 2026 EIA Henry Hub monthly series: next release, the first that can carry the October average [1] Declared · Outside event
- 10 Nov 2026 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, November [2] Declared · Outside event
- Dec 2026 NOAA winter outlook window, December 2026 to February 2027 [6] Declared · Window
- 31 Mar 2027 Scored window ends; March average published in April [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Canadian and US producers earn more in a cold month, and Canada's pipeline gas, sold mostly to the US, gains on price. Higher prices also pay for the new output the EIA expects in 2027 [3].
Connected in Strature
- LNG
- United States
- Canada
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: A tight world LNG winter pulls more US gas to export terminals (17.6 Bcf/d in 2026).
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: The El Nino shapes US winter weather; NOAA favours a warmer northern band.
- The Fed raises rates again by March 2027 Drives: A gas spike adds to an energy index already up 20.4%.
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Shares a channel: Lost Gulf LNG keeps buyers bidding for US cargoes.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price, monthly (RNGWHHDM). US Energy Information Administration · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026. US Energy Information Administration · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026: Natural gas. US Energy Information Administration · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, week ending 16 Oct 2026. US Energy Information Administration · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Natural Gas Weekly Update (final edition), week ending 21 Jan 2026. US Energy Information Administration · 22 Jan 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Prognostic discussion for long-lead seasonal outlooks. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 15 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Market Snapshot: Overview of 2025 Canada-U.S. Energy Trade. Canada Energy Regulator · 27 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- The U.S.-Canada natural gas and electricity trade value rose in 2025. US Energy Information Administration · 5 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026. US Bureau of Labor Statistics · 14 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Exports to Mexico, annual (N9132MX2). US Energy Information Administration · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Record natural gas stock withdrawals during week ending January 30, 2026 (Today in Energy). US Energy Information Administration · 5 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks