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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

A quake or other disaster halts chip output in Kumamoto for 30 days or more

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an earthquake, eruption, flood or other disaster halts wafer output at a chip fab in Kumamoto Prefecture, Kyushu, for 30 days or more in a row, as stated by the fab's operator or reported by two independent outlets.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
2Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. HERP: Hinagu section 30-year chance almost 0-6% (M7.5); Yatsushiro Sea section almost 0-16% (M7.3), which puts it in the high group [5]

Why it matters

A magnitude 7.1 quake hit Kumamoto on 28 Jul 2026, with the top intensity of 7 on Japan's scale. Kumamoto's 12-28nm fab for car and industrial chips evacuated staff; an inspection found the plant "unscathed", and operations had "fully returned to normal" by 4 Aug; no damage or wafer losses were reported. That fab came through a strong quake with a stop of about a week; a 30-day stop of chip output in Kumamoto would need a much worse event.

Why Likelihood 2 Pushes: JMA warning of further large quakes after 28 Jul 2026; HERP high-group rating for the Yatsushiro Sea section. Brakes: the fab came through intensity 7 nearby, an inspection found it undamaged, and it was back to normal by 4 Aug; HERP 30-year odds are low for any one year.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: one Kumamoto fab stopped 30 days, sized on JASM fab 1.

The other facts on file (7)
  • JMA: M7.1 at 16:27 on 28 Jul 2026, Kumamoto region, intensity 7 in Uki and Hikawa [1] (28 Jul 2026)
  • JMA 3rd report: depth 16 km, strike-slip, 61 felt aftershocks by 20:00; warning of similar quakes for about a week; Futagawa and Hinagu fault zones near the source [2] (28 Jul 2026)
  • TSMC: all staff safe; an inspection found the fab unscathed; operations gradually being restored; some fab 2 site work suspended over aftershocks [3] (29 Jul 2026)
  • TSMC: operations fully returned to normal; fab 2 site no setbacks; JPY 250m relief [4] (4 Aug 2026)
  • JASM fab 1 makes 12-28nm chips for autos and industry; first quarterly profit NT$951m in Q1 2026; CNA gives TSMC 77% [6] (16 May 2026)
  • TSMC 2025 20-F: TSMC owned about 72.6% of JASM as of 28 Feb 2026; Sony Semiconductor Solutions, DENSO, Toyota minority holders; fab 1 volume production from Dec 2024; fab 2 construction from Oct 2025 [7] (28 Feb 2026)
  • Japan subsidy up to JPY 732bn (US$4.86bn) for JASM fab 2 [8] (24 Feb 2024)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

A quake or other disaster halts chip output in Kumamoto for 30 days or more. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. A quake or other disaster halts chip output in Kumamoto for 30 days or moreImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low. · Japan
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 25 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · JAPAN · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an earthquake, eruption, flood or other disaster halts wafer output at a chip fab in Kumamoto Prefecture, Kyushu, for 30 days or more in a row, as stated by the fab's operator or reported by two independent outlets.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced; second-round effects only.
  2. Car and industrial chipsA month-long stop would squeeze Japanese buyers of mature chips qualified by part and plant.
  3. Japan's chip strategySubsidies rest on Kumamoto being a safe second base outside Taiwan.
  4. TaiwanIn Strature's view, TSMC's mature-node fabs in Taiwan would be the first fallback, at a cost (no spare-capacity figure sourced).

Sectors 2

  • Autos
  • Technology

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Japan, Taiwan
Sectors
Autos, Technology

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Quiet faults

    Aftershocks fade; fab 1 runs and fab 2 is built for 2028.

  2. S2

    A short stop

    A new strong quake stops the fab for days, as in July.

  3. S3

    A long stop

    A larger quake on the Hinagu or Yatsushiro Sea sections, or damage to tools, water or power, keeps the fab shut for a month.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No JMA intensity 6-upper or higher in Kumamoto
S2A TSMC statement on an evacuation
S3A TSMC filing on lost wafers

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 2028 Fab 2 mass production on 3nm planned [4] Tentative · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · JAPAN · strature.net

The other side

The July quake was a live test: the fab returned to normal within a week, and no damage or wafer losses were reported [3][4]. That record supports Japan's case for more chip investment in Kyushu, and fab 2's 3nm plan [3] adds a leading-edge base outside Taiwan.

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. 令和８年７月28日16時27分頃の熊本県熊本地方の地震について. Japan Meteorological Agency · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. 「令和８年熊本地震」について（第３報）. Japan Meteorological Agency · 28 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Employees safe, Kumamoto fab structure unaffected by earthquake: TSMC. Focus Taiwan (CNA) · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. TSMC's Kumamoto fab back to normal after earthquake. Focus Taiwan (CNA) · 4 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. 布田川断層帯・日奈久断層帯 (long-term evaluation). Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion · page as read 2026-10-26 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. TSMC's Kumamoto unit fab swings to profit in Q1. Focus Taiwan (CNA) · 16 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended 31 Dec 2025. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (SEC EDGAR) · 16 Apr 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Japanese government to subsidize 2nd JASM fab. Focus Taiwan (CNA) · 24 Feb 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks