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World risk · Technology and cyber · Tech & chip controls

Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, China publishes an export-control measure that bans or licenses exports of a chipmaking material or tool to Japanese civilian buyers, or Japan publishes an export-control measure on chipmaking materials or tools that applies only to China or names Chinese buyers (routine End User List updates and rare-earth magnet curbs, scored in a separate risk on China's curbs on civilian trade with Japan, excluded).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
6Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration7
Hard to substitute8
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Yen per US dollar 158.00 on 16 Oct 2026 [11]
  2. Preliminary DCS determination published as Announcement No. 37 of 2026; DCS used in logic and memory chips; the JV is Denal Silane; Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara lodged a protest and said Tokyo would respond appropriately [6]
  3. Provisional anti-dumping deposits of 80.8%-99.2% on Japanese dichlorosilane from 8 Sep 2026; probe opened 7 Jan 2026 [4]
  4. Shin-Etsu Chemical 99.2%; Denka-Air Liquide joint venture 80.8%; Jiji says the move is believed part of a pressure campaign [5]
  5. The DCS probe opened on 7 Jan 2026; China ends anti-dumping probes 12 months after opening unless MOFCOM extends them by six months under Article 26 of its Anti-dumping Regulations (as with Canadian pea starch, opened 12 Aug 2025, due 12 Aug 2026, extended to 12 Feb 2027), so a final DCS ruling is due by about 7 Jan 2027 (Strature calculation) [4] [14]

Why it matters

Since January 2026 China has taken at least six formal steps against Japan, from a ban on dual-use exports to Japanese military users and four entity or watch listings to a provisional anti-dumping duty of up to 99.2% on a Japanese chip gas. None of them yet cuts civilian Japanese chip makers off from a Chinese material, and no China-specific Japanese control has been published (TrendForce, Dec 2025). A new curb either way would touch a deep dependency: Tokyo Electron puts its world share of coater/developers above 90%, with China 34.1% of its sales in the year to March 2026.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the pace of Chinese steps; the DCS case puts chip materials in play. Brakes: China depends on Japanese tools; China chose a duty, not a ban, for DCS; no China-specific Japanese control found.

Why Impact 6 Threshold case one Japanese tool or resist line restricted to China.

The other facts on file (7)
  • MOFCOM Announcement No. 1 of 2026 bars dual-use exports to Japanese military end users and end uses, effective immediately; item lists include tungsten, molybdenum, rare-earth magnets (law-firm reading) [1] (6 Jan 2026)
  • MOFCOM Announcement No. 11 of 2026 lists 20 Japanese entities on the export control list; No. 12 puts 20 on a watch list [2] (24 Feb 2026)
  • MOFCOM Announcement No. 27 of 2026 lists 20 more Japanese entities, effective on publication [3] (29 Jun 2026)
  • MOFCOM Announcement No. 28 of 2026 puts 20 more Japanese entities on the watch list; watch-list entities lose general licences, and an individual licence needs a risk assessment and a written undertaking; Nos. 11 and 27 bar dual-use exports to listed entities [13] (29 Jun 2026)
  • Tokyo has issued no official photoresist export ban (TrendForce, 3 Dec 2025); China photoresist self-sufficiency about 10% in 2024, target 40% by 2026 [7] (3 Dec 2025)
  • Tokyo Electron coater/developer share above 90%; China 34.1% of FY2026 net sales of JPY 2,443.5bn [8] (30 Apr 2026)
  • Japan holds 88% of coater/developers, 53% of silicon wafers, 50% of photoresists (Brookings) [9] (3 Jun 2024)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESCHINATAIWANSOUTH KOREAJAPANNETHERLANDSPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Japan or China puts new export controls on chip materials or tools aimed at the other: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalUNITED STATESCHINATAIWANSOUTH KOREAJAPANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, China publishes an export-control measure that bans or licenses exports of a chipmaking material or tool to Japanese civilian buyers, or Japan publishes an export-control measure on chipmaking materials or tools that applies only to China or names Chinese buyers (routine End User List updates and rare-earth magnet curbs, scored in a separate risk on China's curbs on civilian trade with Japan, excluded).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced; only second-round chip price effects.
  2. China's fabsA Japanese tool or resist control would hit fabs with few other suppliers of coater/developers.
  3. Japanese chemical and tool makersA Chinese curb on a chip material would raise costs for Japanese makers that buy it; China is a large market for Japanese chip tools.
  4. Third countriesIn Strature's view, Japanese resists and wafers also serve fabs in Taiwan and South Korea, so a tit-for-tat would draw in their supply chains (no regional sales figure sourced).

Sectors 1

  • Technology

Countries 5

Who is exposed

Countries
China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea
Sectors
Technology

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Pressure without chips

    China keeps to military users and trade remedies; the DCS case ends in a final duty.

  2. S2

    A Chinese chip-material curb

    MOFCOM bans or licenses a chip material to Japanese civilian buyers.

  3. S3

    Japan answers

    Tokyo applies a China-only rule to a tool or resist.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1MOFCOM final DCS ruling, due about 7 Jan 2027
S2A MOFCOM notice naming Japanese chip or chemical firms
S3A METI notice with China-specific licence terms

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

4%F-0210 · Risk: China halts rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally
Strature forecast F-0210: 4% (2 Oct 2026) · resolves by 10 Jan 2027
050100%

Where the card uses it Resolution date of Strature key question KQ-26 “By 10 Jan 2027, does China halt rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally, not only to named entities?” / F-0210. Strature forecast F-0210: 4% (2 Oct 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 7 Jan 2027 MOFCOM DCS anti-dumping probe due to end, 12 months after its 7 Jan 2026 opening (extendable six months) [4] [14] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 10 Jan 2027 Resolution date of Strature key question KQ-26 “By 10 Jan 2027, does China halt rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally, not only to named entities?” / F-0210. Strature forecast F-0210: 4% (2 Oct 2026) [12] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Chinese pressure speeds substitution: China aims to make 40% of its own resists [7]. Japanese makers' 50-90% shares [8][9] make them hard to replace, and a long dispute could move more orders to fabs in Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.

Connected in Strature

Sources

13 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. China imposes escalated export controls on dual-use items to Japan. Greenberg Traurig · 2026-02 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. MOFCOM Announcement No. 11 of 2026: 20 Japanese entities on the export control list. Xinhua · 24 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. MOFCOM Announcement No. 27 of 2026: 20 Japanese entities on the export control list. Xinhua · 29 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. China imposes provisional anti-dumping measures on Japanese DCS. CGTN (Xinhua) · 7 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. China Imposes Antidumping Measure on Chip Material from Japan. Adnkronos (Jiji Press) · 7 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. China put a 99.2% duty on a chemical chip fabs need. The Next Web · 8 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Japan rumored to curb photoresist exports as China targets 40% self-sufficiency by 2026. TrendForce · 3 Dec 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. FY2026 (April 2025-March 2026) Financial Announcement. Tokyo Electron · 30 Apr 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. The renaissance of the Japanese semiconductor industry. Brookings · 3 Jun 2024 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Foreign Exchange Rates (H.10), Japan. Federal Reserve Board · 19 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Strature key question KQ-26 and register forecast F-0210 (C-005). Strature · 2 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. China adds Japanese entities to export control and watch lists. Thomson Reuters ONESOURCE Global Trade · 1 Jul 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. China extends anti-dumping probe to Canadian pea starch by six months citing complexity of case. Global Times · 31 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks