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Scenario · Chokepoints Not a forecast

Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed together

Follow Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed togetherAlerts when its risks move. Free.

Saudi Arabia's way round Hormuz ends on the Red Sea. If the Red Sea's southern strait closes too, that route is delayed or lost.

In short Closing Bab el-Mandeb as well adds delay, not loss: Saudi crude sent round Africa arrives 27-36 days late. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.

This page answers: What happens to supply if Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are closed together?

Using this page
  1. Choose each strait's status with the buttons under the title.
  2. Drag the timeline to see what arrives, what is late and what never comes.
  3. Read who runs short first, then open the country pages.

Part of Strait of Hormuz · Bab el-Mandeb

Hormuzstatus
Bab el-Mandebselective = only Saudi-linked ships stopped
Saudi crudefor Asia, from the Red Sea coast
Observed
Days

Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of 6 Oct 2026; each figure shows its own period. Terms

Guided storyWho runs shortPrices

How the bypass gets trapped

Guided · 8 steps
Map of the Gulf, the Red Sea, the routes to Asia and Europe and the route round Africa

Routes are modelled, not ship tracks, and pipelines are schematic; region level only; not for navigation. Moving dots on desktop only.

Day by day: what arrives, what is late, what never comes

Strature arithmetic

arrives on timelate cargo landinggap (nothing arrives)

When does each part happen?

    Written from the cited figures by fixed rules.

    Assumptions, each with its evidence

    Each with its evidence

    Every switch below is a Strature assumption. The evidence beside it is cited; the assumption is ours.

    Who runs short first

    Strature arithmetic

    on timearrives late (+days)lost

    Days stocks would last at this gap, if the closure did not end

    grey: Hormuz only · colour: both · ▾ IEA 90-day line

    Arrives late, in detail

    Late is not lost

    Other cargo through Bab el-Mandeb (not via Hormuz)

    What this means

    Approved reading

    Goods beyond crude

    The second closure changes crude most. For the other goods, the Hormuz closure already stops them.

    Prices: what published studies found

    Published studyObserved 2026

    Others' estimates for a comparable disruption, and what Brent actually did. Strature computes no price. Each figure is one dated, named estimate.

      Two fact-checked published figures exist for both straits at once, both from spring 2026: Brent toward USD 140 (Bloomberg Economics, one source) and about USD 20 a barrel added (J.P. Morgan). Brent went from a July average of USD 84 to a September average of USD 114 (EIA), while both straits were disrupted and other drivers overlapped; that move is not the effect of one event. The ranges are the publishers', not Strature estimates.

      Insurance: observed war-risk premiums

      Observed

      Quoted additional war-risk premiums per transit, as a share of the ship's hull value, as published. Each bar is one dated press-reported quote. No forecast.

      It has happened: the 2026 record

      Observed

      The closest analogue is this year. Dates as reported; the scenario borrows none of them as a prediction.

        Second order: Europe's fuel through India and South Korea

        modelled links

        Europe buys refined fuel from refiners that run on Gulf crude. Cited links only.

        Things to watch

        Official statistics and country-level events that show whether this case is starting or ending.

          Country pages

          Each opens the country page with the library case “Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed, 90 days” selected.

          Linked forecasts

          Forecast register

          Questions in Strature's forecast register on related events. No probability from them is carried into this scenario.

          Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.

          Shown: the two linked forecasts whose signs in brief C-002 concern traffic through the straits.

          • F-0010 · brief C-002 · S2 Frozen Siege · 9.2%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 18 Jul 2028
          • F-0020 · brief C-002Iran to mid-2028: a Guard-managed war of attritionS1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) corrected; supersedes F-0007 · 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 18 Jul 2028

          See all 6 linked forecasts in the forecast register (F-0008, F-0009, F-0010, F-0011, F-0020, F-0021).

          What this leaves out, method and sources

            Method details: all sources used on this page

            Source: Eurostat (Comext; nrg_ti_oilm), edited by Strature.

            1. EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 Mar 2026), Table 4 and Table 8 · 2025-H1 · high · link
            2. EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 Mar 2026), Table 4 and Table 8 · 2023 to 2024 · high · link
            3. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026 (PDF archive) · 2026-Q2 · high · link
            4. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026 (PDF archive) · 2025-Q4 · high · link
            5. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (PDF archive; Vortexa estimates) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 2026-08 vs 2026-07 · high · link
            6. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, Global oil markets (released 6 Oct 2026) · 2026-09 · high · link
            7. IEA commentary: How global oil supplies have readjusted to help fill the huge gap left by the Strait of Hormuz shock (22 Jun 2026) · early 2026, before 28 Feb 2026 · high · link
            8. IEA commentary: How global oil supplies have readjusted to help fill the huge gap left by the Strait of Hormuz shock (22 Jun 2026) · 2026-06 (early June) · high · link
            9. IEA commentary (T. Bosoni): Oil markets strain to plug the gap left by Middle East supply shortfall (18 Sep 2026) · 2026-06 · high · link
            10. IEA commentary (T. Bosoni): Oil markets strain to plug the gap left by Middle East supply shortfall (18 Sep 2026) · 2026-08 · high · link
            11. EIA Today in Energy, Red Sea shipping times and freight rates (1 Feb 2024) · 2024 · high · link
            12. Strature (calculation): Strature calculation: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): crude oil, reported by European Union (27), converted from tonnes at 7.33 barrels per tonne (PPAC) over 365 days · 2025 · medium · link
            13. Strature (calculation): Strature calculation: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): crude oil, reported by France, converted from tonnes at 7.33 barrels per tonne (PPAC) over 365 days · 2025 · medium · link
            14. Strature (calculation): Strature calculation: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): LNG, reported by European Union (27), converted from tonnes of LNG at 1,325 cubic metres of gas per tonne (PPAC) · 2019 · medium · link
            15. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: South Korea crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low
            16. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: flow / crude imports · low
            17. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: the US crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low
            18. Strature calculation from cited figures: flow / crude imports · medium
            19. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: China crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low
            20. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Japan crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low
            21. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: flow / crude imports · low
            22. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: India crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low
            23. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x China's buyer share · low
            24. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x Japan's buyer share · low
            25. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: flow / crude imports · low
            26. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x South Korea's buyer share · low
            27. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: flow / crude imports · low
            28. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x India's buyer share · low
            29. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait × the US's buyer share · low
            30. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: the UAE crude through the strait x Japan's buyer share · high
            31. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: flow / crude imports · high
            32. Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: the UAE crude through the strait x China's buyer share · high
            33. Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat: Strature calculation: MOF Japan trade statistics 2025 and EIA barrel factor · 2025 · high · link
            34. IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet (updated Feb 2026; 2025 data, Kpler-based) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            35. IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet (updated Feb 2026; 2025 data, Kpler-based) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            36. IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet (updated Feb 2026; 2025 data, Kpler-based) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            37. IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet (updated Feb 2026; 2025 data, Kpler-based) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            38. EIA Today in Energy, the Strait of Hormuz as an oil chokepoint (16 Jun 2025) · 2024 · high · link
            39. IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet (updated Feb 2026; 2025 data, Kpler-based) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            40. EIA Today in Energy, the Strait of Hormuz as an oil chokepoint (16 Jun 2025) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 1Q25 · medium · link
            41. EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 Mar 2026) · 2025-H1 · high · link
            42. IEA Strait of Hormuz factsheet (updated Feb 2026; 2025 data, Kpler-based) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            43. Canada Energy Regulator Market Snapshot: Canadian crude oil imports dipped slightly in 2025 with most still coming from the US (2026) · 2025 · medium · link
            44. EIA Today in Energy, the Strait of Hormuz as an oil chokepoint (16 Jun 2025) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 1Q25 · medium · link
            45. EIA Today in Energy, the Strait of Hormuz as an oil chokepoint (16 Jun 2025) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 1Q25 · medium · link
            46. MEES, 'Korea Crude Imports: MidEast Volumes, Share Drop To 3-Year Low' (23 Jan 2026), citing Korea's trade statistics · 2025 · low · link
            47. EIA Today in Energy, the Strait of Hormuz as an oil chokepoint (16 Jun 2025) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 1Q25 · medium · link
            48. Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports of oil and petroleum products by partner, monthly) · 2025 (sum of Jan-Dec monthly) · high · link
            49. Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports of oil and petroleum products by partner, monthly) · 2025 (sum of Jan-Dec monthly) · high · link
            50. Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports of oil and petroleum products by partner, monthly) · 2025 (sum of Jan-Dec monthly) · high · link
            51. Eurostat nrg_ti_oilm (imports of oil and petroleum products by partner, monthly) · 2025 (sum of Jan-Dec monthly) · high · link
            52. Canada Energy Regulator: CER Market Snapshot: Canadian crude oil imports dipped slightly in 2025 with most still coming from the U.S. (15 Jul 2026) · 2025 · high · link
            53. Hellenic Shipping News / Banchero Costa: Tankers: Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Exports Keep Declining (14 Jun 2025) · Jan-May 2025 · low · link
            54. Hellenic Shipping News / Banchero Costa: Tankers: Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Exports Keep Declining (14 Jun 2025) · Jan-May 2025 · low · link
            55. Hellenic Shipping News / Banchero Costa: Tankers: Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Exports Keep Declining (14 Jun 2025) · Jan-May 2025 · low · link
            56. Hellenic Shipping News / Banchero Costa: Tankers: Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Exports Keep Declining (14 Jun 2025) · Jan-May 2025 · low · link
            57. Hellenic Shipping News / Banchero Costa: Tankers: Saudi Arabia Crude Oil Exports Keep Declining (14 Jun 2025) · Jan-May 2025 · low · link
            58. IEA, Strait of Hormuz factsheet (last updated Feb 2026) (IEA analysis of Kpler data) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · early 2026 (pre-closure) · high · link
            59. Al Majalla, Saudi exports from the Red Sea coast, citing the IEA (15 Apr 2026) · 2025 · medium · link
            60. IEA, Strait of Hormuz factsheet (last updated Feb 2026) (IEA analysis of Kpler data) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            61. EIA, Country Analysis Brief: United Arab Emirates (last updated July 2026) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 2025 · high · link
            62. EIA, Country Analysis Brief: United Arab Emirates (last updated July 2026) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 2025 · high · link
            63. IEA, Strait of Hormuz factsheet (last updated February 2026) (IEA analysis of Kpler data) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 (pre-closure) · high · link
            64. IEA, Strait of Hormuz factsheet (last updated February 2026) (IEA analysis of Kpler data) · IEA analysis of Kpler data, credited to both · 2025 · high · link
            65. World Oil (Bloomberg, J. Lee), Saudi exports from the Red Sea coast (25 Mar 2026) · 5 days to 24 Mar 2026 · medium · link
            66. EIA: Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR (WCSSTUS1) · week ending 2026-02-27 · high · link
            67. DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves: SPR Quick Facts · current (page read 2026-10-09) · high · link
            68. EIA, report (2025-12) · 2025-12 · medium · link
            69. OpenGov.jp: Japan petroleum reserves trends (republishes METI/ANRE Sekiyu bichiku no genkyo) · 2026-07 (end of month) · medium · link
            70. News On AIR: Government reiterates there is no shortage of LPG; assures it has 74 days of total reserve capacity (26 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-26 · medium · link
            71. KNOC: Stockpiling bases in operation (bichuk giji unyeong hyeonhwang), as of 2026-08-31 · 2026-08-31 · high · link
            72. SmartToday, South Korea's government oil stocks pass 100 million barrels, 210 days of use in an emergency (22 Dec 2025), citing the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources · 2025-12-22 · medium · link
            73. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy (Kilian, Plante, Richter) · 2026-03-20 · high · link
            74. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 · 2026-04-28 · high · link
            75. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 · 2026-04-28 · high · link
            76. US EIA: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2026 (archive PDF) · 2026-05 · high · link
            77. US EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook April 2026 · 2026-04-07 · high · link
            78. US EIA: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, August 2026 (archive PDF) · 2026-08 · high · link
            79. IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, Chapter 1 · 2026-04-14 · high · link
            80. IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026, Chapter 1 (adverse scenario) · 2026-04-14 · high · link
            81. European Central Bank: ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2026 · 2026-03-19 · high · link
            82. European Central Bank: ECB staff macroeconomic projections, March 2026 · 2026-03-19 · high · link
            83. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas: What the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the global economy · 2026-03-20 · high · link
            84. European Central Bank: ECB staff macroeconomic projections, March 2026 · 2026-03-19 · high · link
            85. European Central Bank: ECB staff macroeconomic projections, March 2026 · 2026-03-19 · high · link
            86. Goldman Sachs (as reported by Stocktwits): Goldman Sachs estimate (as reported) · 2026-03 · low · link
            87. Goldman Sachs (as reported by Stocktwits): Goldman Sachs estimate (as reported) · 2026-03 · low · link
            88. Goldman Sachs (as reported by Bloomberg/Yahoo): Goldman flags $100-plus Brent if Hormuz shut another month · 2026-04-09 · medium · link
            89. J.P. Morgan (as reported by press): J.P. Morgan note (as reported) · 2025-06 · low · link
            90. J.P. Morgan (as reported by MarketScreener): J.P. Morgan note (as reported) · 2026-04-02 · medium · link
            91. Citi (as reported by EnergyNow/Reuters): Citi raises Brent forecast for 2026, sees $150 oil if Hormuz disruption persists · 2026-04 · medium · link
            92. Citi (as reported by EnergyNow/Reuters): Citi raises Brent forecast for 2026, sees $150 oil if Hormuz disruption persists · 2026-04 · medium · link
            93. Morgan Stanley: Iran Conflict: Three Scenarios for Markets · 2026-04-07 · medium · link
            94. Fitch Ratings (as reported by Newsquawk), Brent annual avg 2026 estimate (2026-03-20) · 2026-03-20 · medium · link
            95. Fitch Ratings (as reported by Newsquawk), Brent annual avg 2026 estimate (2026-03-20) · 2026-03-20 · medium · link
            96. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Impact on the Global Gas Market (Fulwood) · 2025-06 (reissued 2026-03) · high · link
            97. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023 · 2023-10-26 · high · link
            98. ING: Middle East escalation rattles energy markets (Patterson) · 2026-03-05 · high · link
            99. Bernstein (as reported by Hellenic Shipping News), TTF change estimate (2026-03) · 2026-03 · low · link
            100. ING, LME aluminium estimate (2026-03) · 2026-03 · medium · link
            101. Bloomberg Economics (as reported by Daily News Egypt), Brent estimate (2026-04-01) · 2026-04-01 · medium · link
            102. J.P. Morgan (as reported by Rigzone), Brent increment estimate (2026-03-30) · 2026-03-30 · medium · link
            103. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023 · 2023-10-26 · high · link
            104. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2023 · 2023-10-26 · high · link
            105. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 · 2026-04-28 · high · link
            106. US EIA: Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (RBRTE) · 2026-04-07 · high · link
            107. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 · 2026-04-28 · high · link
            108. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 (Asian LNG +94% over March); JKM print via press · 2026-03 · high · link
            109. Argus Media: European diesel cracks at record as Med supply tightens (Argus) · 2026-07-29 · high · link
            110. US EIA: New York Harbor ULSD spot price · 2026-09-16 · high · link
            111. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 · 2026-04-28 · high · link
            112. US EIA: US Gulf Coast kerosene-type jet fuel spot price · 2026-09-15 · high · link
            113. Commerzbank (as reported by FXStreet): Oil: mixed product impact and Hormuz risk (Commerzbank) · 2026-03-31 · medium · link
            114. Hydrocarbon Processing: Saudi Aramco and Sonatrach raise LPG prices for April by between 38 and 80% · 2026-04 · high · link
            115. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 · 2026-04-28 · high · link
            116. Fertilizer Daily: Tampa ammonia price $555 September 2026, fourth monthly decline · 2026-09-10 · medium · link
            117. Fertilizer Daily: QatarEnergy raises June sulphur price 9% to $805/t FOB · 2026-06-02 · medium · link
            118. Westair Gases: Helium shortage (Westair Gases blog) · 2026 · low · link
            119. Reuters (as reported by Mining Weekly), LME aluminium estimate (2026-05-25) · 2026-05-25 · medium · link
            120. US EIA, Brent spot (EIA) monthly avg estimate (2026-10-06) · 2026-10-06 · high · link
            121. Haver Analytics, Arabian Light estimate (2026-09-08) · 2026-09-08 · low · link
            122. World Bank: Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2026 · 2026-04-28 · high · link
            123. Haver Analytics, report (2026-09-08) · 2026-09-08 · medium · link
            124. Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat: Japan trade statistics (HS9, monthly): oil products, reported by Japan · 2019-2025 · high · link
            125. Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC), Petroleum Information Center: KNOC domestic crude oil imports by country (data.go.kr file 15054606): crude oil, reported by South Korea · 2019-2025 · high · link
            126. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): refined fuels, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            127. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): LPG, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            128. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): wheat, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            129. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): rice, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            130. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): barley, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            131. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            132. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): ammonia, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            133. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): phosphates, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            134. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): sulphur, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            135. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): rare gases incl. helium (HS 2804.29), reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            136. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): methanol, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            137. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            138. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): aluminium, reported by Germany · 2019-2025 · high · link
            139. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): refined fuels, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            140. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): wheat, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            141. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): rice, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            142. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): barley, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            143. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            144. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): ammonia, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            145. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): phosphates, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            146. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): sulphur, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            147. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): rare gases incl. helium (HS 2804.29), reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            148. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): methanol, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            149. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            150. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): aluminium, reported by European Union (27) · 2019-2025 · high · link
            151. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): refined fuels, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            152. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): wheat, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            153. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): rice, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            154. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): barley, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            155. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            156. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): phosphates, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            157. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): sulphur, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            158. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): rare gases incl. helium (HS 2804.29), reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            159. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            160. Eurostat: Comext international trade in goods (CN8, monthly): aluminium, reported by France · 2019-2025 · high · link
            161. Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat: Japan trade statistics (HS9, monthly): urea and nitrogen fertilisers, reported by Japan · 2019-2025 · high · link
            162. Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat: Japan trade statistics (HS9, monthly): phosphates, reported by Japan · 2019-2025 · high · link
            163. Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat: Japan trade statistics (HS9, monthly): polyethylene and polypropylene, reported by Japan · 2019-2025 · high · link
            164. Ministry of Finance Japan / e-Stat: Japan trade statistics (HS9, monthly): aluminium, reported by Japan · 2019-2025 · high · link
            165. Business Insurance (Reuters), listed-area circular (2019-05-17) · 2019-05-17 · high · link
            166. Lloyd's List, war-risk premium quotes (2019-Q2 (before May)) · 2019-Q2 (before May) · medium · link
            167. Lloyd's List, war-risk premium quotes (2019-06 (mid-June)) · 2019-06 (mid-June) · medium · link
            168. Lloyd's List, war-risk premium quotes (2019-07) · 2019-07 · low · link
            169. Allianz Commercial, war-risk premium quotes (2019-06) · 2019-06 · medium · link
            170. Hellenic Shipping News (S&P Global Platts), war-risk premium quotes (2023-12/2025-05) · 2023-12/2025-05 · medium · link
            171. Hellenic Shipping News (S&P Global Platts), war-risk premium quotes (2025-06-12) · 2025-06-12 · high · link
            172. Hellenic Shipping News (S&P Global Platts), war-risk premium quotes (2025-06-19) · 2025-06-19 · high · link
            173. Howden Re: Strait of Hormuz report (March 2026), pp. 10-13 · 2026-02 (before 28 Feb 2026) · medium · link
            174. Insurance Business: War-risk insurance braces for prolonged elevated premiums as Hormuz ceasefire buckles (28 Jun 2026) · 2026-02-27 · medium · link
            175. LMA Joint War Committee circular JWLA-033 (3 Mar 2026), listed-area circular (2026-03-03) · 2026-03-03 · high · link
            176. Howden Re: Strait of Hormuz report (March 2026), pp. 10-13 · 2026-03 (first weeks) · medium · link
            177. Howden Re: Strait of Hormuz report (March 2026), pp. 10-13 · 2026-03 · medium · link
            178. Howden Re: Strait of Hormuz report (March 2026), pp. 10-13 · 2026-03-19 · medium · link
            179. Marketplace, war-risk premium quotes (2026-03/04 (between 28 Feb and 22 Apr 2026)) · 2026-03/04 (between 28 Feb and 22 Apr 2026) · medium · link
            180. LMA market statement: Safety concerns, not insurance availability, driving reduced vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (23 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-23 · high · link
            181. Aaj News, ships and seafarers held in the Gulf, citing the IMO Secretary-General (25 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-25 · medium · link
            182. Aaj News, ships and seafarers held in the Gulf, citing the IMO Secretary-General (25 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-25 · medium · link
            183. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global energy security (Aug 2026) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 2026-Q2 · high · link
            184. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global energy security (Aug 2026) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 2026-Q2 · high · link
            185. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Global energy security (Aug 2026) (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 2026-Q2 · high · link
            186. Insurance Business: War-risk insurance braces for prolonged elevated premiums as Hormuz ceasefire buckles (28 Jun 2026) · 2026-06-28 · medium · link
            187. Insurance Business, war-risk premium quotes (2026-07-10) · 2026-07-10 · medium · link
            188. Al Jazeera, war-risk premium quotes (2026-07-22) · 2026-07-22 · medium · link
            189. UN News, the IMO on seafarers in the Strait of Hormuz (23 Jul 2026) · 2026-07-23 · high · link
            190. JWC circular JWLA-034 (29 Jul 2026): Saudi Arabia; Gulf/Red Sea area amended · 2026-07-29 · high · link
            191. Engine, war-risk premium quotes (2023-12 (early)) · 2023-12 (early) · medium · link
            192. Argus Media, listed-area circular (2023-12-18) · 2023-12-18 · high · link
            193. Argus Media, war-risk premium quotes (2023-12-20) · 2023-12-20 · medium · link
            194. Singapore Ministry of Transport, war-risk premium quotes (2024-02) · 2024-02 · medium · link
            195. Hellenic Shipping News (S&P Global Platts), war-risk premium quotes (2025-06-19) · 2025-06-19 · medium · link
            196. Baird Maritime (Reuters), war-risk premium quotes (2025-07-04) · 2025-07-04 · medium · link
            197. Baird Maritime (Reuters), war-risk premium quotes (2025-07-09) · 2025-07-09 · medium · link
            198. Hellenic Shipping News (S&P Global Platts), war-risk premium quotes (2025-12-08) · 2025-12-08 · medium · link
            199. Baird Maritime (Reuters), war-risk premium quotes (2026-07-17) · 2026-07-17 · medium · link
            200. Baird Maritime (Reuters), war-risk premium quotes (2026-07-21) · 2026-07-21 · medium · link
            201. Baird Maritime (Reuters), war-risk premium quotes (2026-07-23) · 2026-07-23 · medium · link
            202. Baird Maritime (Reuters), war-risk premium quotes (2026-07-23) · 2026-07-23 · low · link
            203. Al Jazeera, war-risk premium quotes (2026-07-22) · 2026-07-22 · medium · link
            204. gCaptain (Reuters), Singapore port congestion (Jun 2024) · 2024-05 (late) · medium · link
            205. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (EIA analysis of Vortexa data) · EIA analysis of Vortexa data · 2026-08 · high · link
            206. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct 2026, Table 4a (SPR net withdrawals) · 2026-Q2 · high · link
            207. Poten & Partners (E. Broekhuizen) via The Maritime Executive, Saudi tanker routes from the Red Sea coast (Jul-Aug 2026) · 2026-07/08 · low · link
            208. Bloomberg via Fortune, Saudi exports from the Red Sea coast (28 Mar 2026) · 2026-02-28/2026-03-28 · medium · link
            209. US Department of Energy: Strategic Petroleum Reserve, SPR Quick Facts (page data as of 16 Oct 2026) · 2026-10-16 · high · link
            210. US Department of Energy: United States to Release 172 Million Barrels of Oil From the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (11 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-11 · high · link
            211. IEA news: IEA confirms member country contributions to collective action to release oil stocks in response to Middle East disruptions (19 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-11/ · high · link
            212. Oil & Gas Journal: IEA's emergency reserve release slows significantly (17 Aug 2026), reporting the IEA Oil Market Report Aug 2026 · 2026-05 · low · link
            213. IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 · 2026-03/2026-04 · high · link
            214. IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 · 2026-02/2026-04 · high · link
            215. IEA Oil Market Report - May 2026 · 2026-02/2026-04 · high · link
            216. IEA: Japan Oil Security Policy (18 Aug 2022) · 2022-08 · high · link
            217. METI: Reduction of the Private Oil Stockpiling Obligation and Release of National Crude Oil Stockpiles (16 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-16/2026-07-15 · high · link
            218. METI: Release of National Crude Oil Stockpiles (24 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-26/ · high · link
            219. METI: Second Release of National Crude Oil Stockpiles (24 Apr 2026) · 2026-05-01/ · high · link
            220. Derived from ANRE (METI) Current Status of Petroleum Stockpiles, end-Mar and end-Apr 2026 (published May and Jun 2026), METI release notices (24 Mar, 24 Apr 2026) and the IEA Asia Oceania May draw (as reported by OGJ, 17 Aug 2026) · 2026-03-26/2026-05-31 · low · link
            221. S&P Global Platts via Hellenic Shipping News: South Korea to release record 22.46 million barrels of oil reserves in emergency action (12 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-12/ · medium · link
            222. Korea JoongAng Daily: Korea to deploy 20 million barrels of Middle East crude through swap (31 Mar 2026) · 2026-04/2026-05 · medium · link
            223. S&P Global Platts: South Korea eases refiners' crude stockpiling mandate under IEA plan (28 May 2026) · 2026-05-29/ · medium · link
            224. Derived from the MOTIR 22.46 mb pledge (Mar 2026) and the swap plan (20 mb over Apr-May 2026) · 2026-03/2026-06 · low · link
            225. EIA Today in Energy, strategic stock build (2025) · 2025 · high · link
            226. Argus: Weight of freight in for the long haul (22 May 2023) · 2023-05-22 · medium · link
            227. SupplyChainBrain (Bloomberg), a Japanese tanker's voyage from the strait to Japan (29 Apr 2026) · 2026-04-28/2026-05-18 · medium · link
            228. Euronews (AP; HD Hyundai Oilbank): Oil tanker arrives in South Korea after leaving the Strait of Hormuz (8 May 2026) · 2026-04/2026-05-08 · medium · link
            229. Arab News, India's crude imports from the Middle East, citing Petrowatch (3 Oct 2026) · 2026-10-03 · low · link
            230. Straits Times via Hellenic Shipping News, tankers reach Singapore from the Middle East, quoting Argus (11 Jul 2026) · 2026-07-11 · low · link
            231. EIA Today in Energy, Red Sea shipping times and freight rates (1 Feb 2024) · 2024-02-01 · high · link
            232. Ship & Bunker, sailing distances from the Saudi Red Sea coast, Clarksons Research (28 Jul 2026) · 2026-07-28 · medium · link
            233. SUMED (Arab Petroleum Pipelines Co.): History · 1995-08/ · high · link
            234. Egypt Independent, flows on the Egyptian pipeline from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, citing an Egyptian official (2 Apr 2026) · 2026-04-02 · low · link
            235. Aramco: Aramco announces first quarter 2026 results (May 2026) · 2026-Q1 · high · link
            236. World Oil (Bloomberg, Julian Lee), Saudi exports from the Red Sea coast (25 Mar 2026) · 2026-03-20/2026-03-24 · medium · link
            237. Baird Maritime (Reuters), loadings moved to the Saudi Red Sea coast (3 Mar 2026) · 2026-02-28/2026-03-03 · medium · link
            238. ANRE (METI): Sekiyu bichiku no genkyo (Current Status of Petroleum Stockpiles), June 2026 (end-April data) and May 2026 (end-March data) · 2026-04 · high · link
            239. ANRE (METI): Sekiyu bichiku no genkyo, April 2026 (end-Feb data) and May 2026 (end-March data) · 2026-03 · high · link
            240. Asia Economy: government to ease refiners' stockpiling requirement (28 May 2026) · 2026-05-28 · medium · link

            Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of 6 Oct 2026; each figure shows its own period. Terms

            IEA (2026), Strait of Hormuz factsheet; IEA news releases; Oil Market Report (May 2026). Licence CC BY 4.0 for IEA’s own work; figures based on Kpler data where stated; modified by Strature. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): public domain; figures marked “EIA (Vortexa data)” credited to both. Source: Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics (edited by Strature). Canada Energy Regulator, Market Snapshot (2026): one figure cited with credit; text copyright of the publisher.

            Naming a bank, broker or firm whose study or figure is cited is not a view on it or its securities. Named parties and readers may send corrections to corrections@strature.net.

            Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say "the Gulf" for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation. No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us.

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