In short In a 30-day closure some oil never arrives at all: of the economies shown, China loses the most, 310-317 million barrels. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.
This page answers: What happens to supply if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, restricted or unsafe?
Using this page
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Switch between Oil and LNG to see who gets cargo on time, late or not at all.
with a named buyer on file, of 19.9 mb/d of crude and products through the strait; refined fuels and crude without a named buyer are not counted
Arrives late
67–68mb
of which 67–68 mb held in the Gulf, then late (Strature assumption); never counted as lost
Lost
651–673mb
never arrives: 30 days closed + 90 of recovery
mb = million barrels. Totals cover the closure and the recovery (120 days).
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of 7 Oct 2026; each figure shows its own period. Terms
Map · day 12
Drawing the map…
What is assumed?
Strature assumptioncited evidence
Day by day: when does the gap open, and what fills it?
Strature arithmetic
day 12
Who is hit: on time, late or lost?
Strature arithmetic
Good
on timearrives late (+days)lost
Who runs short first?
Observed 2026Strature arithmetic
days of stocks, as each source counts themscenario durationdays left at the end of the window (engine)chipeach figure's own basis
Arrives late: how much, and how many days?
Strature arithmetic
What this means
Approved reading
Among the economies shown, China has the most oil that does not arrive in a 30-day closure: 310-317 million barrels over the closure and a 90-day slow recovery. South Korea's figure is 83-87 million barrels and Japan's 59-65 million; less than half of each falls in the closure itself (Japan 26-31 million). Cargo held in the Gulf for up to 7 days and released at the reopening is late, never counted as lost. Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.
Approved reading for this case (Closed, 30 days) at the card's settings: bypass lines 3.5 mb/d, stocks drawn, slow recovery. It matches the card above.
What did comparable cases cost?
Published studyObserved 2026
published range (study's own basis)low confidenceobserved 2026
Red Sea disruption from Nov 2023 (as reported); Suez Canal transits −70% in June 2024 against mid-December 2023 (UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2024); ships rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope (+10–15 days)Corrected 21 Oct 2026.
What did war-risk cover cost at Hormuz?
Observed
Has anything like this happened before?
ObservedPublished study
Things to watch
Observed
Official statistics and country-level events that would show a case like this starting or ending. This page gives no probability for the scenario; linked forecast questions are in their own box below.
What this leaves out
Method
Method details
Linked forecast questions
Forecast register
Nearest related forecast; not a closure probability.
Shown: the two linked futures whose signs in brief C-002 concern traffic through the strait.
In the forecast register's exact wording. Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves. No probability is carried into the scenario above: the scenario is illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.
F-0010 · brief C-002S2 Frozen Siege · 9.2%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 18 Jul 2028 · open
F-0020 · brief C-002Iran to mid-2028: a Guard-managed war of attritionS1 Guard-Managed Attrition (MODAL) corrected; supersedes F-0007 · 13.74%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 18 Jul 2028 · open
See all six linked forecasts from brief C-002 in the forecast register (F-0020, F-0010, F-0008, F-0009, F-0011, F-0021).
Sources on this page
licences
Every figure above is a button: tap it for its source, period, licence and confidence. Filled dot = cited fact; half dot = Strature arithmetic on cited inputs; ring = Strature assumption; amber dot = a single figure reported by the press. Dashed underline = low confidence. Kpler and Vortexa figures appear only as published by the IEA or the EIA, credited to both. No Lloyd's List Intelligence counts, PortWatch or Comtrade values. Naming a bank or firm whose study or figure is cited is not a view on it or its securities.
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: South Korea crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: the US crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: China crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Japan crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: India crude through the strait minus flows from bypass exporters · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x China's buyer share · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x Japan's buyer share · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x South Korea's buyer share · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait x India's buyer share · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: Saudi Arabia crude through the strait × the US's buyer share · low confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: the UAE crude through the strait x Japan's buyer share · high confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
Strature calculation from cited IEA and national figures: the UAE crude through the strait x China's buyer share · high confidence · Strature calculation from cited inputs
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Short-Term Energy Outlook (Aug, Sep and Oct 2026), Today in Energy, World Oil Transit Chokepoints, Brent spot price (RBRTE). Public domain. Figures marked “EIA (Vortexa data)” are EIA analysis of Vortexa data, credited to both.
IEA (2026), Strait of Hormuz factsheet; IEA news releases (11 and 19 Mar, 7 Oct 2026); Oil Market Report (May 2026). Licence CC BY 4.0 for IEA’s own work; figures based on Kpler data where stated; modified by Strature.
World Bank, Commodity Markets Outlook (October 2023; April 2026). Licence: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0 (DESNZ, Energy Trends).
Source: Ministry of Finance Japan, Trade Statistics (edited by Strature).
Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of 7 Oct 2026; each figure shows its own period. Terms
Map: Natural Earth, with Crimea drawn as part of Ukraine. Boundaries as drawn by the source; no position on any dispute is implied. Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty. We say “the Gulf” for the sea also called the Persian Gulf or the Arabian Gulf. Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; not for navigation. No data provider endorses Strature or this page, and none is affiliated with us.