Scenario · Red Sea Not a forecast

Bab el-Mandeb avoided by half of traffic for 90 days

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Half of normal traffic avoids the southern Red Sea and goes round the Cape: nothing is lost on lanes with a cited Cape alternative; everything diverted arrives late.

In short Going round the Cape for 90 days loses nothing on lanes with a cited Cape route: 55 million barrels of the economies shown arrive late, most of it the EU's. Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice.

Part of Bab el-Mandeb

Showing: half of traffic avoids Bab el-Mandeb for 90 days, then 30 days of normal traffic (window 120 days); Cape detour +16 days (EIA).

Basis: the six economies tracked on every scenario page, oil in million barrels (mb), totals for cargo due in the 120-day window, some landing after it; the day chart below shows single days. All buyers on file, Canada included: 58 mb diverted, 58 mb late (up to 23 days), 0 mb lost.

Illustrative arithmetic on stated assumptions; not a forecast; not advice. It does not say whether, when or for how long a strait will close. Figures as of 6 Oct 2026; each figure shows its own period. Terms

Routes are modelled, not ship tracks; region level only; not for navigation. Moving dots on desktop only.

How much oil arrives late for each length of avoidance, on one day scale?

When does the gap open, and when does the late cargo arrive?

Which economies wait, how much, and for how many extra days?

When half of traffic avoids Bab el-Mandeb for 90 days and goes round the Cape, nothing is lost on lanes with a cited Cape route; the diverted cargo arrives late. Of the six economies shown, the EU and South Korea have oil volumes on this lane: 55 million barrels arrive late over 120 days, 51 million of them the EU's (58 million for all buyers on file), with the Cape adding about 16 days from the Gulf to northwest Europe. The Gulf's crude to Asia does not use Bab el-Mandeb as its main lane; Korea's volume here is crude from outside the Gulf. Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.

This reading describes the card's own case: half of traffic avoids the strait for 90 days, the EIA's +16 days via the Cape, a 120-day window. Other choices on this page change the figures, not the reading.

Which trade lanes use Bab el-Mandeb, and what goes round the Cape?

Which other goods wait, and for whom?

Each good is counted in its own unit and never added to another. Refined fuels are on file in tonnes; they are not converted to barrels, so they are not in the oil figures above.

Mt = million tonnes, kt = thousand tonnes, bcm = billion cubic metres.

How much longer is the voyage round Africa?

Which input changes the result most, at this length?

Each bar runs the same scenario with one input changed; the others stay at the card's setting. Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast.

What did insurers charge when owners last avoided the strait?

Observed traffic, 2023 to 2024

What moves were observed in the comparable period, 2023 to 2024?

Naming a bank, broker or firm whose study or figure is cited is not a view on it or its securities. Named parties and readers may send corrections to corrections@strature.net.