EU leaders miss the deadline for the 2028-2034 budget
The test By 31 Mar 2027 the European Council has not reached a unanimous agreement on the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework, meaning conclusions that fix its overall expenditure ceilings.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 7 to 6; Impact 4 to 5.
- Likelihood 6 to 5.
- MFF regulation adopted by the Council unanimously after Parliament's consent; last year's ceilings extended if none adopted in time [3]
- Costa aims for a political agreement by year-end; talks with all delegations on own resources; new compromise with the missing figures for the late-November summit [11]
- Kristersson: too large and too expensive, in no hurry; Jetten: not good enough; Merz: very far apart, solutions possible Nov or Dec; Frieden confident of a deal before Christmas [6]
- Costa plans an extraordinary leaders' meeting on 26-27 Nov (draft agenda not confirmed) [5]
Show 4 earlier changes
- Friends of Cohesion: cuts bring the MFF to just 1.02% of GNI; Cyprus box remains the basis [7]
- Revised negotiating box: EUR 1,622,011m commitments, EUR 1,654,712m payments (2025 prices); EUR 149,296m NGEU repayment [1]
- Council annex: Commission proposal EUR 1,763,056m in 2025 prices (EUR 1,984,894m current); box EUR 141bn (8%) lower (Strature's subtraction) [1]
- Box heading for cohesion, agriculture and rural prosperity: EUR 914,179m in 2025 prices; Ukraine Reserve up to EUR 88,869m [1]
Why it matters
EU leaders aim to agree the 2028-2034 budget by end-2026 so laws pass in 2027 and money flows from Jan 2028. The Irish box of 10 Oct 2026 sets about EUR 1.62tn in 2025 prices, 8% below the Commission's proposal; Sweden and the Netherlands call it too large and 17 Friends of Cohesion and France call the cuts too deep. Costa plans a new compromise for an extra summit in late November.
Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: Costa's late-November summit and new compromise aimed at a year-end deal, leaders who expect a deal this year, the January 2028 start, one frequent veto gone, and three months of slack past the year-end aim.
Why Impact 5 The EU bloc and Ukraine; no money lost by March 2027, the risk is late 2028 programmes: three months of the EUR 914bn cohesion and agriculture heading is about EUR 33bn (US$37bn); months; unanimity has no other forum, but Article 312 extends last year's ceilings.
The other facts on file (3)
- Commission proposed almost EUR 2tn, 1.26% of GNI, EUR 409bn Competitiveness Fund, EUR 131bn defence and space [2] (16 Jul 2025)
- European Council: agreement before end-2026 would allow legislative acts in 2027 and funding without interruption in Jan 2028 [4] (18 Jun 2026)
- 2021-2027 MFF: proposal 2 May 2018, European Council ceiling 21 Jul 2020, regulation 17 Dec 2020 [8] (Nov 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
By 31 Mar 2027 the European Council has not reached a unanimous agreement on the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework, meaning conclusions that fix its overall expenditure ceilings.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian channel found.
- EU programmesLess of 2027 for the sector laws [4]; cohesion and farm programmes, a EUR 914bn heading in 2025 prices [1], may start late in 2028 (Strature's view).
- Public financesContributions, rebates and the EUR 149bn NGEU repayment stay open [1][7].
- Defence and UkraineThe defence window [2] and a Ukraine Reserve of up to EUR 88.9bn [1] wait with everything else.
Sectors 1
- Agriculture and food
Countries 10
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Deal by Christmas
Leaders settle in November or December, as Merz and Frieden expect and Costa aims.
- S2
Spring deal
Talks pass into 2027 and close before 31 March.
- S3
Long stall
No deal by spring; laws run late and the 2027 ceilings are extended into 2028 under Article 312(4).
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | conclusions with figures after the 26-27 Nov 2026 meeting |
| S2 | a new box with figures from the next presidency by Feb 2027 |
| S3 | the June 2027 European Council ends without figures |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 26 Nov 2026 Extraordinary European Council on the MFF, 26-27 Nov (draft agenda not confirmed) [11] Tentative · Outside event
- 31 Dec 2026 European Council's aim for MFF agreement [4] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Mar 2027 This card's deadline for a European Council MFF agreement (Strature's, not an official date) [4] Tentative · Strature date
- 1 Jan 2028 New MFF due to start [1] Declared · Outside event
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Connected in Strature
- European Union
- Germany
- France
- Sweden
- Netherlands
- Spain
- Poland
- Ireland
- Hungary
- Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK Driven by: A later deal meets the French election of spring 2027.
- No EU legal act funds Ukraine for 2028 by late October 2027 Drives: Ukraine's 2028 money sits in the negotiating box.
- Cost-of-living protests bring down a government in a large EU economy Shares a channel: National budgets under strain shape contributions.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2028-2034 - Negotiating Box (ST 13922/26). Council of the EU · 10 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Commission proposal for the 2028-2034 Multiannual Financial Framework. European Commission · 16 Jul 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, Article 312. legislation.gov.uk · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- European Council conclusions on the next multiannual financial framework and other items (June 2026). Press Club Brussels · 2026-06 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 2028-2034 Budget: plans for an extraordinary summit of leaders on 26 and 27 November. Eunews · 13 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- 2028-2034 budget: EU leaders divided as some suggest a deal may not come until 2027. Eunews · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Spain hosts a meeting of the Friends of Cohesion on the next EU budget. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Spain · 12 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Multiannual financial framework (fact sheet). European Parliament · 2025-11 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Costa is stepping up work on the multi-year budget: meetings are planned with all the delegations. Eunews · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks