Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called

The test Between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the BCRA or the PBOC ends the bilateral swap agreement, cuts its CNY130bn ceiling, or requires early repayment or deactivation of the CNY35bn activated tranche.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
2Low falling this month

Likelihood ↓ 5 Aug 2026: the BCRA and the PBOC renewed the CNY130bn line and extended its term from 3 to 5 years, removing the mid-2026 deadline from the window.

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The national election is held on the fourth Sunday of October before mandates end (24 Oct 2027, Strature's calendar count) [18]
  2. Impact 3 to 4.
  3. BCRA gross international reserves US$50,228m [7]
  4. Caputo said Argentina could use the China swap if it cannot refinance about US$5bn of Bonares planned for 2027; the US$20bn US swap remains an option next year; no US or Chinese reaction reported [16]

Why it matters

On 5 Aug 2026 Argentina's central bank and the People's Bank of China renewed their CNY130bn swap line and stretched its term from three to five years; the CNY35bn (about US$5bn) tranche activated in 2023 stays in effect, of which about US$680m was still drawn in August 2026. That came after a US envoy had called the line 'extortionary' (April 2025) and the US Treasury had signed its own US$20bn swap with Argentina (signed 18 Oct 2025, announced 20 Oct 2025). The pressure is on the record, but the renewal removes the next deadline from the window.

Why Likelihood 2 Pushes: US statements of April 2025; security alignment in the February 2026 trade agreement.

Why Impact 4 The line ended; key price USD/ARS, no move scored.

The other facts on file (17)
  • The BCRA and the PBOC renewed the CNY130bn swap agreement and extended its term from 3 to 5 years; the CNY35bn (US$5bn) activation of early 2023 remains in effect [1] (5 Aug 2026)
  • The previous agreement was due to expire on 6 Aug 2026; the line is about US$19.249bn [9] (5 Aug 2026)
  • The BCRA renewed the full activated tranche for 12 months and planned to reduce it gradually and deactivate it by mid-2026 (superseded by the 5 Aug 2026 renewal) [3] (12 Jun 2024)
  • The BCRA renewed the full CNY35bn activated tranche for another 12 months, available until mid-2026; otherwise it would have been reduced from June 2025 (superseded by the 5 Aug 2026 renewal) [2] (10 Apr 2025)
  • Per the BCRA's 2025 financial statements as reported, funds in use from the tranche were cut during 2025 to about a third (just over US$3bn to about US$1bn): the agreement charges a rate on funds held outside China, so the BCRA moved them back onshore [9] (5 Aug 2026)
  • About US$680m of the activated portion remained outstanding, as reported in August 2026 [8] (5 Aug 2026)
  • US envoy Mauricio Claver-Carone called the line 'extortionary' and said Washington wanted no IMF deal to prolong it; Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian rejected the criticism [10] [11] (8 Apr 2025)
  • Bessent said reforms should bring enough foreign-exchange inflows to repay the active US$5bn portion [12] (14 Apr 2025)
  • The BCRA announced on 20 Oct 2025 that it and the US Treasury had signed an exchange-stabilisation agreement of up to US$20bn [4] (20 Oct 2025)
  • The BCRA's 2025 financial statements date the signing of the US Treasury agreement of up to US$20bn to 18 Oct 2025 [6] (14 May 2026)
  • In October 2025 the BCRA exchanged pesos for US$2.5bn with the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund [5] (31 Oct 2025)
  • The BCRA says the transactions under the US agreement were settled before year-end; international reserves were US$41,095m on 30 Dec 2025, the last business day of 2025 [6] (14 May 2026)
  • Bessent said US assistance is not conditioned on closing the China swap; his concerns were ports, military bases and observation centres [13] (14 Oct 2025)
  • The US and Argentina signed an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment [14] (5 Feb 2026)
  • The agreement's reported terms include coordinating dual-use export controls, preventing third-country backfilling, and exploring inbound investment review; it enters into force 60 days after both governments certify their domestic requirements [15] (11 Feb 2026)
  • The trade agreement had not fully entered into force; the US Deputy Trade Representative urged Argentina to send it to Congress [17] (31 Aug 2026)
  • Governor Bausili called the arrangement 'stable and quasi-permanent' (May 2026); Milei faces re-election in late 2027 with more than US$25bn of maturities [8] (5 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Argentina's China swap line is ended, cut or called: Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the BCRA or the PBOC ends the bilateral swap agreement, cuts its CNY130bn ceiling, or requires early repayment or deactivation of the CNY35bn activated tranche.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo sourced Canadian channel was found.
  2. Reserves and the pesoGross reserves would lose the activated tranche, counted in the firepower BCRA Vice President Vladimir Werning presented in June 2026 for the 2027 vote [9]; a peso under pressure would have a smaller buffer (Strature's view).
  3. Debt serviceArgentina faces more than US$25bn of maturities in late 2027 [8], and the minister names the tranche as a fallback for 2027 [16]; a call on it would compete for the same dollars (Strature's view).
  4. IMF programmeA reserve loss would make the programme's reserve targets harder to meet (Strature's view).
  5. China tiesCaputo and Quirno are expected to visit China once trade talks settle [8]; a cut on US terms would strain those talks (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Argentina, China, United States
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The line sits quietly

    The five-year line stays, Argentina draws the tranche if 2027 refinancing falls short, and US concern stays on ports and bases.

  2. S2

    A trade-off

    Before the 2027 vote, Argentina repays the tranche early in a deal with Washington.

  3. S3

    A rupture

    A US-China clash pushes Buenos Aires to cut the ceiling, or Beijing calls the tranche.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The next BCRA release on the swap, or the 2026 financial statements due about May 2027
S2A BCRA notice deactivating any part of the CNY35bn tranche
S3A US statement making support conditional on the line, or a PBOC notice

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. May 2027 BCRA financial statements for 2026 (the 2025 ones came on 14 May 2026) [6] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 24 Oct 2027 First round of the presidential election (fourth Sunday of October, Electoral Code art. 53); Milei's re-election bid, with more than US$25bn of maturities in late 2027 [18] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Aug 2031 End of the renewed five-year term (Strature arithmetic from 5 Aug 2026) [1] Tentative · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · ARGENTINA · strature.net

The other side

Lines with both Beijing and Washington give Argentina two backstops before the 2027 vote [1][4]. If the line is ever cut, a planned exit repaid from rising reserves [7] would show the central bank no longer needs it (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

18 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic and the People's Bank of China renew their swap agreement and extend the term from 3 to 5 years. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 5 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. The BCRA and the PBC renew the whole active tranche of the swap agreement for a 12-month term. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 10 Apr 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. El BCRA y el PBOC renuevan la totalidad del tramo activado del swap de monedas hasta julio de 2026. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 12 Jun 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. The BCRA and the U.S. Department of the Treasury sign a USD20 billion agreement for exchange rate stabilization. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 20 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Exchange Stabilization Fund, October 2025 Financial Statements (note 9). US Department of the Treasury · 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Financial statements 2025. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 14 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Reservas internacionales del B.C.R.A., saldos al 21/10/2026. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Argentina renews US$19-billion China swap for another five years. Buenos Aires Times (Bloomberg) · 5 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Argentina y China renuevan swap de monedas: se extiende el plazo a cinco años. Bloomberg Línea · 5 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Milei caught in Trump-China spat over US$18-billion FX swap line. Buenos Aires Times (Bloomberg) · 8 Apr 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Con mención al swap, China le recordó a EE.UU. su contribución a la estabilidad en Argentina. Bloomberg Línea · 8 Apr 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Bessent expects Argentina to be able to pay off China swap. Buenos Aires Times (Bloomberg) · 14 Apr 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Swap con China: EE.UU. no exige su fin, pero apunta a bases y puertos chinos. Cadena 3 · 14 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  14. Ambassador Greer Signs the United States–Argentina Agreement on Reciprocal Trade and Investment. Office of the US Trade Representative · 5 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  15. Argentina and US finalize sweeping trade deal. Baker McKenzie Global Import Blog · 11 Feb 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  16. Argentina eyes tapping China swap to cover 2027 financing needs. Buenos Aires Times (Bloomberg) · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  17. Trump administration urges Milei to fast-track US trade deal. Buenos Aires Times · 31 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  18. Código Electoral Nacional, Ley 19.945 (texto actualizado), art. 53. InfoLEG, Ministerio de Justicia · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks