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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict · Elections & unrest

A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027

The test On 24 Oct 2027, a candidate of Fuerza Patria or another Peronist list wins the most votes in the first round of Argentina's presidential election, whether or not a runoff follows.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 5 to 4.
  2. National elections are held on the fourth Sunday of October; the call at least 90 days before (by 26 Jul 2027, Strature calculation); runoff within 30 days; win with over 45%, or 40% and a lead over 10 points. [1]
  3. First round expected 24 Oct 2027; runoff likely 21 Nov. [2]
  4. Official wholesale rate ARS 1,485.92 on 24 Oct 2025, 1,378.92 on 27 Oct 2025, 1,470.83 on 28 Oct 2025, 1,441.50 on 7 Nov 2025, 1,528.26 on 23 Oct 2026. [5]
  5. Kicillof launched informally on 19 Sep 2026; the first concrete sign of his candidacy, not a formal declaration. [10]
  6. Sep 2026 coalition polls (relayed; margin of error not stated in the relay): TrendsData (8-17 Sep, n=2,000) LLA 35, FP 33; Analogías (5-8 Sep, n=2,932) 30.7 and 31; Opinaia (4-9 Sep, n=1,000) 33 and 29; Proyección (1-10 Sep, n=1,354) 35.0 and 31.9 (average 33.4 and 31.2, Strature calculation). Jul-Aug polls ranged from FP +4.1 (Proyección) to LLA +17.2 (DC Consultores). [2]
  7. Milei-Kicillof polls (relayed; margin of error not stated): Explanans (2-9 Sep 2026, n=7,025) Milei 38.5, Kicillof 24.0; Consultora Tendencias (24-29 Aug, n=4,958) Kicillof 33.7, Milei 32.4. [2]

Why it matters

Argentina votes for president on 24 Oct 2027, the fourth Sunday of October, as the electoral code requires. Four September 2026 polls put La Libertad Avanza on 33.4 points on average and the Peronist Fuerza Patria on 31.2, a gap inside normal poll error. A Peronist first place would raise questions about the IMF programme and the opening of the economy (Strature's view).

Why Likelihood 4 September coalition polls lean narrowly to LLA, inside normal error; Jul-Aug polls spread widely and the latest Milei-Kicillof poll favours Milei; several Peronist candidates and no primaries could split the vote.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case, a Peronist first place with the runoff open: one national economy; the 2025 vote moved the peso 7.2% in a day; months; a policy partners route around at a cost. Canadian mining assets sourced, no sourced loss.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Jan 2026 polls (relayed; margin of error not stated): Opina Argentina (11 Jan, n=3,590) LLA 44, FP 35; Consultora Trends (5-16 Jan, n=2,000) 43 and 32. [2] (16 Jan 2026)
  • Grabois confirmed a presidential pre-candidacy on 8 Jun 2025. [9] (8 Jun 2025)
  • On 10 Jun 2025 the Supreme Court upheld Cristina Fernández de Kirchner's six-year sentence and lifetime ban from public office. [11] (10 Jun 2025)
  • Argentina owed the IMF SDR 41,789m on 31 Mar 2026. [3] (31 Mar 2026)
  • The IMF's US$20bn Extended Fund Facility arrangement with Argentina was approved on 11 Apr 2025; the second review was completed on 21 May 2026. [4] (21 May 2026)
  • Canadian mining assets in Argentina C$8,143m, 55 companies, 2024 (preliminary). [7] (31 Dec 2024)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. A Peronist candidate finishes first in Argentina's first round on 24 Oct 2027: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

On 24 Oct 2027, a candidate of Fuerza Patria or another Peronist list wins the most votes in the first round of Argentina's presidential election, whether or not a runoff follows.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaC$8,143m of Canadian mining assets in Argentina at end-2024 (preliminary) [7]; no sourced loss.
  2. The IMF programmeDoubt that the fiscal anchor (in the IMF's words, the zero-cash balance) and the reserve build survive a change of government [13][6] (Strature view).
  3. The peso and bondsThe 2025 vote moved the official rate 7.2% in a day (Strature calculation), mostly reversed the next day [5]; a Peronist first place could move it sharply too (Strature view; not a view on any security).
  4. Trade and investmentThe opening to imports and foreign capital in doubt (Strature view).

Sectors 3

  • Mining and metals
  • Energy and pipelines
  • Banks and insurers

Who is exposed

Countries
Argentina, United States, Brazil, Canada
Sectors
Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines, Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Milei ahead

    LLA keeps a lead and wins in the first round or the runoff.

  2. S2

    Peronist first, LLA in the runoff

    A Peronist list tops the first round; the runoff decides it.

  3. S3

    A Peronist return

    A Peronist candidate leads and wins the runoff; the IMF programme is renegotiated in 2028.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1LLA poll average more than five points ahead by mid-2027
S2A single Peronist ticket agreed before the official call, due by 26 Jul 2027
S3Two or more pollsters with Fuerza Patria ahead beyond their stated error

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 26 Jul 2027 Latest date for the official election call (90 days before; Strature calculation) [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 24 Oct 2027 First round, president and Congress [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 21 Nov 2027 Runoff, if needed (within 30 days) [2] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · ARGENTINA · strature.net

The other side

A clear result would end the uncertainty that dollarised savers before the 2025 vote [6]. It would also set the policy path for mining and energy investors, Canadian ones among them [7]. A government of either camp that kept the IMF anchor would remove a large source of uncertainty (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

12 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Código Electoral Nacional, Ley 19.945, arts. 53-54 and 148-151. InfoLEG, Ministerio de Justicia · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. 2027 Argentine general election. Wikipedia · 26 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Argentina and the IMF. International Monetary Fund · 31 Mar 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. IMF Executive Board Completes Second Review... Argentina (PR 26/165). International Monetary Fund · 21 May 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Tipo de cambio mayorista de referencia (Comunicación A 3500), series 5. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Argentina: 2026 Article IV Consultation, Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the EFF (country report page). International Monetary Fund · 22 May 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Canadian Mining Assets (CMAs), by Country and Region, 2023 and 2024 (p). Natural Resources Canada · 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. The BCRA and the U.S. Department of the Treasury sign a USD20 billion agreement for exchange rate stabilization. Banco Central de la República Argentina · 20 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Juan Grabois anunció su candidatura presidencial para el 2027. BAE Negocios · 8 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Se lanzó Kicillof: 'Cuenten conmigo para que el año que viene la Argentina tenga una alternativa'. Letra P · 19 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. La Corte Suprema confirmó la condena contra Cristina Kirchner y será detenida. La Capital (Rosario) · 10 Jun 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on the Second Review under Argentina's EFF Arrangement (PR 26/120). International Monetary Fund · 15 Apr 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks