A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, a Turkish naval or coast guard vessel shadows, obstructs or orders off a survey, research or cable ship working under Greek licence, or Greek and Turkish warships confront each other, in the sea south or east of Crete (between Crete, Kasos, Rhodes and the Libyan coast), as reported by either government or by two independent news sources. Shadowing counts only when either government or two independent sources report a vessel following or closing on the ship, not monitoring it at a distance.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ 20 Oct 2026: Libya's eastern House of Representatives approved the 2019 memorandum; Türkiye issued NAVTEX 1032/26 and Greece a counter-NAVTEX the same day.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Türkiye's defence ministry rejected Greek and EU objections; Fidan said Ankara awaits written notice of exploration east of Kasos [3]
- Gerapetritis: the memorandum will not be implemented under any circumstances; Athens will not act hastily on territorial waters south of Crete [2]
- Greece raised the memorandum in closed UN Security Council consultations; EU High Representative said it violates third states' sovereign rights [3]
- Libya's eastern House of Representatives approved the 2019 memorandum, reversing its 2020 rejection and its decision to cut ties with Ankara; Anadolu called the vote unanimous [1]
- Antalya NAVTEX 1032/26: KOBI RUEGG survey for the East to Med Corridor cable from 21 Oct until further notice, south of Rhodes, east of Crete, west of Cyprus [5]
- Heraklion station issued a counter-NAVTEX: most coordinates lie on the Greek continental shelf [4]
- Crete-Cyprus cable surveys (about 60% done) being readied to resume; Türkiye's defence ministry will not permit unauthorised activity in waters it claims [11]
Why it matters
On 20 Oct 2026 Libya's eastern-based House of Representatives approved the 2019 maritime memorandum with Türkiye, which Greece says ignores Crete's sea zones. Greece says it will not be implemented under any circumstances. The same day Türkiye issued a survey notice for waters south of Rhodes and east of Crete, and Greece issued a counter-notice; seismic surveys in Greek blocks south of Crete that Ankara says fall inside the memorandum's lines may start towards the end of 2026.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: seismic surveys due in blocks Ankara claims; cable surveys near Kasos being readied; the ratification; the NAVTEX duel; the Blue Homeland bill.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: one shadowing that lasts days; no key price moves.
The other facts on file (4)
- Seismic surveys possible towards year-end in four of five blocks, including South of Crete I and II; Ankara says the memorandum covers those concessions; HEREMA tender deadline 11 Nov [6] (24 Aug 2026)
- Greece's energy minister said surveys south of Crete would be done by the end of 2026 [7] (24 Mar 2026)
- Draft Turkish maritime jurisdiction law presented at an Ankara University news conference, codifying Blue Homeland claims including areas tied to the Libya memorandum [8] (13 May 2026)
- 22-23 Jul 2024: Turkish gunboats closed on the Ievoli Relume surveying for the Crete-Cyprus cable near Kasos; resolved diplomatically; the August 2024 resumption passed without incident [10] (20 Aug 2024)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of CreteImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Turkey
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, a Turkish naval or coast guard vessel shadows, obstructs or orders off a survey, research or cable ship working under Greek licence, or Greek and Turkish warships confront each other, in the sea south or east of Crete (between Crete, Kasos, Rhodes and the Libyan coast), as reported by either government or by two independent news sources. Shadowing counts only when either government or two independent sources report a vessel following or closing on the ship, not monitoring it at a distance.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo direct Canadian exposure found.
- Energy explorationA standoff would test Greece's plan for its first offshore drilling in about 40 years and could delay surveys south of Crete [6].
- CablesSurvey work for the Crete-Cyprus power link and the East to Med data cable crosses the contested waters.
- The EU and TürkiyeStrain on Ankara's EU track; Gerapetritis pointed to EU funding for Libya and Türkiye's accession process (as reported).
- LibyaEastern Libya's parliament now lines up with Ankara.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Paper war
Notices and counter-notices, but surveys go ahead without a naval meeting.
- S2
A shadowing at sea
Turkish warships follow or block a Greek-licensed survey ship, as off Kasos.
- S3
Talks hold
Kallas-Fidan and other contacts keep both sides to statements.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Seismic work south of Crete ends with no incident reported by either navy |
| S2 | A Turkish NAVTEX reserving the survey area for naval exercises |
| S3 | The Kallas-Fidan meeting and any Greek-Turkish high-level council date |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 11 Nov 2026 Bid deadline for HEREMA's seismic survey tender for western and southern Greece [6] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 Seismic surveys in blocks south of Crete (window Oct 2026 - Mar 2027; late 2026 to early 2027 per the source) [6] Tentative · Window
- Mar 2027 Blue Homeland law in Türkiye's parliament (Strature's window Nov 2026 - Mar 2027; the source expected an October vote, none found) [8] Tentative · Window
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The other side
Clear lines would let both states license offshore work and cables with less risk. The vote gives eastern Libya and Türkiye a shared basis for offshore licensing, and EU backing strengthens Greece's hand in talks (Strature's view).
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Libyan Parliament Approves Controversial Turkey Maritime Deal. Greek City Times · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Greece's FM: Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum remains invalid. Cyprus Mail · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Greece transfers the dispute over the Turkish-Libyan memorandum to the UN and EU. Athens News · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Greece Challenges Turkish Survey Claims in Maritime Showdown. Greek City Times · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Turkish NAVTEX challenges maritime zones south of Crete and Rhodes. Parapolitika · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Greece's Hydrocarbons 2.0, GSI, and Turkey. OT (Oikonomikos Tachydromos) · 24 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Chevron to begin seismic surveys south of Crete by end of 2026. Athens Times · 24 Mar 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Ankara moves to codify 'Blue Homeland' doctrine in law. Hürriyet Daily News · 13 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Interconnector research vessel monitored by Turkish navy. Cyprus Mail · 20 Aug 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Greece rejects Turkish permission demand as Cyprus-Crete power cable surveys near restart. Greek City Times · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks