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World risk · Regulation and compliance

Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Council of States or the National Council votes not to enter into, to send back, or to reject in its final vote the federal decree approving the Switzerland-EU package (26.023, draft 1).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Referendum on the package probably in 2028 (Wikipedia, citing a Reuters report of Sep 2025); since overtaken by the June 2027 target reported by SRF [8]
  2. ECB reference rates 23 Oct 2026: USD 1.1193 and CHF 0.9227 per euro [9]
  3. APK-N voted 15 to 9, with 1 abstention, to enter into the stabilisation part (federal decree 1) on 21 Oct 2026; a motion to send decree 1 back to the Federal Council failed 15 to 10; the referendum question was opened but not voted; the committee aims to finish on 16-18 Nov [12]
  4. Commitment credits about CHF 3.48bn for 2030-2036; FK-N voted 14-8-3 to follow the Council of States on cohesion credits, Erasmus+ 18-7; National Council debates the package in the winter session 2026 [2]
  5. A non-entry motion on the package was put in the FK-N on 16 Oct 2026 and defeated (no count given) [2]
  6. Council of States dealt with the package as first chamber on 28 Sep-1 Oct 2026, finished except the electricity agreement, and favoured a vote of people and cantons; the National Council will also decide the referendum question [10]
Show 4 earlier changes
  1. Supporters, with the APK-N pressing to finish the bill by December, aim for a popular vote on the stabilisation part on 6 Jun 2027, before the autumn 2027 federal elections; the SVP calls the date a tactic [13]
  2. APK-N meetings with 26.023 on 19-21 Oct, 5-6 Nov and 16-18 Nov 2026, with petitions for and against [6]
  3. Neutrality initiative rejected by 70.2% on 27 Sep 2026; every canton against [11]
  4. Protocols signed 2 Mar 2026; dispatch 13 Mar 2026 with optional treaty referendum; APK-S 3 Sep 2026 majority for entry, minority Chiesa, Germann, Rieder for non-entry; SPK-S 29 Jun proposed a vote of people and cantons [1]

Why it matters

The Federal Council sent the Switzerland-EU package (Bilaterals III) to parliament on 13 March 2026. The Council of States finished its debate on 28 Sep-1 Oct 2026, except electricity, and chose a vote of people and cantons; the National Council takes the package in the winter session 2026 and has still to decide the referendum question. Every committee majority so far has backed entry: on 21 Oct the National Council's foreign affairs committee voted 15 to 9, with 1 abstention, to enter into the stabilisation part, and a non-entry motion put in its finance committee on 16 Oct was defeated.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: non-entry motions, the referendum question, petitions. Brakes: the Council of States finished without non-entry or referral; every committee majority backs entry; finance committee 14 to 8 to follow the Council of States.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case a referral or non-entry in one chamber, a delay.

The other facts on file (4)
  • APK-N rejected constitutional initiative 26.425 by 15 to 9 [3] (2 Jun 2026)
  • SPK-N backed a double majority of people and cantons [4] (22 May 2026)
  • Federal Council adopted the dispatch on 13 Mar 2026 [5] (22 Apr 2026)
  • Voters rejected the No 10-million Switzerland initiative on 14 Jun 2026 by 54.8%, 13 of 23 cantons against [7] (14 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty package. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Swiss parliament blocks or sends back the EU treaty packageImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Switzerland
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 25 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · SWITZERLAND · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Council of States or the National Council votes not to enter into, to send back, or to reject in its final vote the federal decree approving the Switzerland-EU package (26.023, draft 1).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian channel touched.
  2. EU relationsNon-entry or referral delays ratification; existing bilateral agreements stay in force.
  3. Market accessUpdates to free movement, transport, conformity assessment and farm trade would wait.
  4. BudgetCHF 3.48bn of credits for 2030-2036 [2] would not be committed.

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Switzerland, European Union

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Through parliament

    The National Council enters and both chambers pass the decree in their final votes; the referendum question is settled between the chambers.

  2. S2

    Referral

    The National Council sends the package back to settle the referendum question or wage-protection measures.

  3. S3

    Rejection

    A chamber refuses entry or rejects the final vote.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1National Council entry vote in the winter session 2026
S2An APK-N minority motion for referral after 18 November 2026
S3A non-entry motion gaining a committee majority

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 5 Nov 2026 APK-N meeting with 26.023 on the agenda [6] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 16 Nov 2026 APK-N meeting (16-18 Nov) with 26.023 and related petitions [6] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Dec 2026 National Council debates the package in the winter session [2] Declared · Outside event
  4. 6 Jun 2027 Popular vote on the stabilisation part, the date its supporters aim for [13] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SWITZERLAND · strature.net

The other side

A smooth passage would lock in Swiss access to EU programmes such as Erasmus+, which the finance committee majority sees as avoiding isolation in education and research. A clear vote would also settle uncertainty for firms trading with both the EU and the US.

Connected in Strature

Sources

13 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. 26.023 Paket Bilaterale III, Fahne Staenderat, Herbstsession 2026. Parlamentsdienste · 4 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Medienmitteilung der Finanzkommission des Nationalrates. Parlamentsdienste · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Medienmitteilung der Aussenpolitischen Kommission des Nationalrates. Parlamentsdienste · 2 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Abstimmung Bilaterale III: Staatspolitische Kommission des Nationalrats ist fuer Staendemehr. SRF · 22 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Europapolitik: Bundesrat verabschiedet Botschaft. EDA, Abteilung Europa · 22 Apr 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. APK-N Sitzungsplanung Q4 2026. Parlamentsdienste · 28 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Abstimmung vom 14. Juni: Initiative Keine 10-Mio-Schweiz gescheitert. SRF · 14 Jun 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Switzerland-European Union relations. Wikipedia · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Euro foreign exchange reference rates. European Central Bank · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. 45. interparlamentarisches Treffen Schweiz-EU in Luzern. Parlamentsdienste · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Abstimmung vom 27. September: 70.2 Prozent Nein zur Neutralitaetsinitiative. SRF · 27 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Bilaterale III: Deutliches Eintreten und Beginn der Detailberatung (APK-N media release). Parlamentsdienste · 21 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  13. Bilaterale Verträge III - Abstimmungstermin Juni 2027: Taktik oder richtiger Zeitpunkt?. SRF · 29 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks