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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict · Elections & unrest

Greece's next general election gives no party a majority

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the first general election to the Hellenic Parliament held in that window gives no party 151 or more of the 300 seats, on the official result.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
7High steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration3
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 4 to 3.
  2. The next Greek election must be held by 25 Jul 2027 (secondary summary) [2]
  3. First list gets 20 bonus seats at 25% or more, plus one seat per half point from 25% to 40%, up to 50 in all; first applied June 2023 [2]
  4. PASOK merged into a single party on 29 Mar 2026; ND holds 156 seats on the current count summarised [2]
  5. Seven polls of 6-20 Oct 2026 put ND at 28.2-30.4%, ELAS 15.0-16.5%, PASOK 12.3-14.6% [1]
  6. Seat projections: Metron Analysis 119 (14-20 Oct), Marc 121 (12-14 Oct), Opinion Poll 122 (7-10 Oct), Metron Analysis 120 (16-22 Sep), Palmos Analysis 122 (14-18 Sep), Opinion Poll 126 (11-15 Sep); 151 needed [1]

Why it matters

Greece must hold a general election by 25 Jul 2027, and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has pointed to spring 2027. New Democracy won 158 of 300 seats in June 2023 with 40.56% of the vote; in seven polls taken on 6-20 Oct 2026 it stood at 28.2% to 30.4%. Six seat projections from four pollsters, 11 Sep to 20 Oct 2026, give it 119 to 126 seats, 25 to 32 short of a majority. Two new parties launched in May 2026, Alexis Tsipras's Greek Left Alliance (ELAS) and Maria Karystianou's Hope for Democracy, split the vote further.

Why Likelihood 7 Pushes: Six seat projections by Metron Analysis, Marc, Opinion Poll and Palmos Analysis (11 Sep to 20 Oct 2026) give ND 119-126 seats [1]; ELAS and Hope for Democracy split the vote [1][3][4]; The May 2023 first round produced no majority [5].

Why Impact 3 Threshold case one election with no majority, then talks or a second vote.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Mitsotakis set spring 2027 as the election date (Kathimerini, 1 Dec 2025, as cited) [6] (1 Dec 2025)
  • May 2023: ND 40.79%, 146 seats, no majority, no coalition, second vote followed under the constitution with a caretaker government; 25 Jun 2023: ND 40.56%, 158 seats with 50 bonus seats [5] (25 Jun 2023)
  • Tsipras presented the founding declaration of ELAS on 26 May 2026 [3] (26 May 2026)
  • Karystianou launched Hope for Democracy in Thessaloniki on 21 May 2026; 'the goal is first place' [4] (21 May 2026)
  • Greece has threatened a veto of the EU maritime services ban on Russian oil [8] (4 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Greece's next general election gives no party a majority: Low impact · likely1 · Low impact · likelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Greece's next general election gives no party a majority: Low impact · likelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the first general election to the Hellenic Parliament held in that window gives no party 151 or more of the 300 seats, on the official result.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian channel loses.
  2. GovernmentCoalition talks or a second election weeks later, with a caretaker government in between.
  3. Policy and reformBudget, defence and EU-funded reform decisions wait for a government (Strature's view).
  4. Foreign policyPositions on Türkiye and EU sanctions on Russian oil shipping, where Greece has threatened a veto, could be bargained in coalition talks (Strature's view).
  5. MarketsThe Greek-Bund spread is the key price; no sourced move.

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Greece, European Union
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    A second vote

    The first election leaves ND short; no coalition forms and a repeat election follows within weeks, as in 2023.

  2. S2

    A coalition

    ND, or a bloc around it, forms a government with one or more partners after a hung result.

  3. S3

    A late recovery

    ND climbs towards the 37-40% a majority needs under the bonus scale (Strature calculation) and wins outright.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1ND still below 32% in polls in March 2027
S2A party leader stating terms for a coalition before the vote
S3Seat projections above 140 for ND

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Monthly polls with seat projections [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Mar 2027 General election, spring 2027 as Mitsotakis indicated (March to May) [6] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 25 Jul 2027 Last date for the general election [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 27 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · GREECE · strature.net

The other side

A coalition would tie a wider share of voters to the government's programme, which could make reforms harder to reverse (Strature's view). A second election can settle the result quickly: the gap between the two votes in 2023 was five weeks [5].

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Opinion polling for the next Greek legislative election. Wikipedia · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Next Greek legislative election. Wikipedia · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. Αλέξης Τσίπρας: Όλη η Ιδρυτική Διακήρυξη για το κόμμα ΕΛΑΣ. Naftemporiki · 26 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. «Ελπίδα για τη Δημοκρατία»: Η ιδρυτική διακήρυξη του κόμματος της Μαρίας Καρυστιανού. Naftemporiki · 21 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. June 2023 Greek legislative election. Wikipedia · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Mitsotakis cites 22% income rise, sets spring 2027 election date. Kathimerini (as cited by Wikipedia; not opened) · 1 Dec 2025 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Sanction in limbo: how the EU hit a wall with its maritime services ban. Euronews · 4 Aug 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Impact 4 to 3 · All risks