The krone gives back its 2026 gains against the euro
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Norges Bank's daily EUR/NOK exchange rate is at or above 11.50 on at least one business day.
Not under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- EUR/NOK 10.4545 on 26 Oct 2026, lowest since 28 Dec 2022 (10.4495); last above 11.50 on 28 Jan 2026 (11.523); 12-month high 11.9858 on 17 Dec 2025; above 11.50 on 234 of 251 days in 2025 and 19 of 206 in 2026 [1]
- Policy rate 4.00% to 4.25% on 7 May 2026; cuts on 19 Jun 2025 and 18 Sep 2025 [13]
- Stronger krone cut GPFG value by NOK 472bn in Q3 2026; fund NOK 22,014bn on 30 Sep 2026 [5]
- CPI 3.4%, CPI-ATE 3.0% in the year to Sep 2026 [4]
- Governor: the spring 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up energy and commodity prices; higher foreign interest rates weaken the disinflationary effect of the krone; a weaker krone raises import prices [7]
- Norway direct investment in Canada C$5.2bn in 2025 (Statistics Canada 36-10-0008-01) [12]
Show 4 earlier changes
- World Bank Europe gas US$25.42/MMBtu in Sep 2026 against US$11.24 in Feb [10]
- Norges Bank buys foreign currency worth NOK 300m a day for the government in Oct 2026 [6]
- Policy rate raised from 4.25% to 4.50% (decided 23 Sep, published 24 Sep 2026); stronger krone damps imported inflation [2]
- MPR 3/2026: I-44 119.6 (2025), 112.3 (2026), 110.0 (2027); oil US$96 (2026), US$83 (2027); rate near 4.5% then falling from end-2027 [3]
Why it matters
The krone is at its strongest against the euro since December 2022: EUR/NOK was 10.4545 on 26 October 2026, down from 11.9858 on 17 December 2025. High oil and gas prices and two rate rises in 2026 lie behind it. If oil prices fall as futures imply, or Norges Bank turns to cuts, EUR/NOK could rise by a tenth in a year, lifting import prices while inflation is still 3.4%. This is a risk scenario, not a view on any currency or security.
Why Likelihood 4 Futures put oil at US$83 in 2027 against US$96 in 2026; the Gulf conflict could end. Brakes: the bank is ready to raise; oil and gas still high.
Why Impact 4 Key price EUR/NOK. Threshold case: one daily rate at 11.50.
The other facts on file (1)
- Canada exported about C$2.3bn of goods to Norway in 2025 (nickel, precious stones and metals, copper); imports C$1.6bn (fish and seafood, machinery, ships) [9] (12 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Norges Bank's daily EUR/NOK exchange rate is at or above 11.50 on at least one business day.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanadian nickel and copper sales to Norway become dearer for Norwegian buyers (Strature's view); not sized.
- PricesA rise in EUR/NOK of the size this risk defines raises kroner import prices against the bank's 2% inflation goal [3] (Strature's view; the bank gives no size).
- RatesImported inflation could bring a further hike.
- The budgetA weaker krone raises the fund's kroner value (Strature's view on spending effect).
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Norway, European Union, Canada
- Sectors
- Retail and importers, Households, Banks and insurers
- Goods
- Consumer imports, Nickel, Copper
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Strong krone holds
Oil stays high and the bank keeps 4.50%; EUR/NOK stays near 10.5-11.0.
- S2
Drift back
Oil eases toward the futures path and the bank signals cuts; the krone weakens but stays under 11.50.
- S3
Slide
A Gulf settlement drops oil sharply or global markets sell off, and EUR/NOK passes 11.50.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No cut on 17 Dec 2026 or 18 Mar 2027 |
| S2 | December 2026 report lowers the rate path |
| S3 | Brent well below US$83 for 2027 |
| S3 | F-0074 resolves no by 20 Nov 2026 and talks hold. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves no by 20 Nov 2026 and talks hold. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 5 Nov 2026 Norges Bank policy rate decision [8] Declared · Outside event
- 10 Nov 2026 Statistics Norway CPI for October [4] Declared · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 Strature F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [11] Declared · Strature date
- 17 Dec 2026 Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report 4/2026 [8] Declared · Outside event
- 18 Mar 2027 Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report [8] Declared · Outside event
- 17 Jun 2027 Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report [8] Declared · Outside event
- 23 Sep 2027 Norges Bank decision and Monetary Policy Report [8] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
A weaker krone helps Norway's exporters of goods other than oil, such as seafood and metals, and tourism (Strature's view). It also raises the fund's value in kroner. Canadian buyers of Norwegian fish and seafood, machinery and ships would pay less if the krone also weakens against the Canadian dollar (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Crude oil
- Norway
- Canada
- Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more Drives: A weaker krone raises imported inflation, which the bank says can require a higher rate.
- Norway's oil fund falls below NOK 20,000bn at a quarter end Shares a channel: The krone moved the fund's kroner value by NOK 472bn in Q3 2026.
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: Oil and gas prices set the bank's oil assumption and the krone's main driver.
Sources
13 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Exchange rates, EUR/NOK daily, 2 Jan 2018 to 26 Oct 2026. Norges Bank data API · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Policy rate raised to 4.50%. Norges Bank · 24 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Monetary Policy Report 3/2026. Norges Bank · 24 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Consumer price index, September 2026. Statistics Norway · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Negative return in the third quarter. Norges Bank Investment Management · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Foreign exchange transactions in October 2026. Norges Bank · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- The Governor's autumn lecture: Why is the last mile of disinflation taking so long?. Norges Bank · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Calendar: policy rate decisions. Norges Bank · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Canada-Norway relations. Global Affairs Canada · 12 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release. World Bank · 2 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 2 Oct 2026
- Strature forecast register, F-0074 (S-001). Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Norway (NOR) country dossier. Strature Library · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Policy rate decisions since 1986. Norges Bank · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks