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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 12 months

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the CBRT raises its one-week repo (policy) rate above the level then in force, at a scheduled or interim Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Rate table: 27 Oct 2023 35%; 24 Nov 2023 40%; 22 Dec 2023 42.5%; 26 Jan 2024 45%; 22 Mar 2024 50%; 18 Apr 2025 46%; 23 Jan 2026 37%; 23 Oct 2026 36% [2]
  2. 22 Oct 2026: one-week repo 37% to 36%; overnight lending 40% to 39%; overnight borrowing 35.5% to 34.5%; energy prices an upside risk; stance will be tightened on significant and persistent deterioration [1]
  3. September CPI 1.84% m/m, 29.73% y/y [4]
  4. Energy import bill up 33.8% y/y to US$6.46bn in Aug 2026; crude imports 2.84 Mt, down 1.1% [7]
  5. August CPI 31.51% y/y; Brent about US$91 in Aug and US$103 in early Sept; reserves US$184.2bn on 4 Sep, up US$21.6bn since 24 Jul; 5-year CDS 220 bp as of 9 Sep [3]
  6. CBRT end-2026 inflation forecast raised from 26% to 28% on 13 Aug [5]

Why it matters

The CBRT cut its policy rate from 37% to 36% on 22 October 2026, its first move since January. Annual inflation fell to 29.73% in September, the first reading below 30% since November 2021. But the bank names high energy prices as an upside risk and says it will tighten if the outlook worsens; it last raised the rate in April 2025. This is a risk scenario, not a view on any security.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: energy named as upside risk, Brent near US$103 in early Sept, 2025 political-shock hike. Brakes: easing just restarted, reserves up, CDS down, corridor used first in 2025.

Why Impact 4 Key price: policy rate and USD/TRY. Threshold case: one hike of any size.

The other facts on file (3)
  • 17 Apr 2025 policy rate raised from 42.5% to 46% [6] (17 Apr 2025)
  • CBRT 2026 MPC calendar: 22 Jan, 12 Mar, 22 Apr, 11 Jun, 23 Jul, 10 Sep, 22 Oct, 10 Dec; first 2027 meeting 21 Jan [11] (28 Dec 2025)
  • 20 Mar 2025 interim MPC raised the overnight lending rate to 46% over market developments [8] (20 Mar 2025)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 12 months: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 12 months: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the CBRT raises its one-week repo (policy) rate above the level then in force, at a scheduled or interim Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. Credit and growthA hike reverses expected easing amid weak demand.
  2. LiraA forced hike would signal stress, as in 2025 [6][8] (Strature's view).
  3. EnergyAn oil spike passes into prices and the current account.

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Turkey
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines, Autos
Goods
Crude oil, Natural gas

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Steady easing

    Inflation keeps falling and the MPC cuts by small steps.

  2. S2

    Pause

    Energy prices or the lira stall disinflation; cuts stop but the rate holds.

  3. S3

    Reversal

    An oil spike, a political shock or a lira sell-off forces a hike, perhaps first through the corridor.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1October CPI below September's 29.73%
S2No cut on 10 December
S3An interim MPC meeting

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Oct 2026 Summary of the 22 Oct MPC meeting (within five working days; by about 29-30 Oct) [1] Declared · Outside event
  2. Nov 2026 TurkStat October CPI [4] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 10 Dec 2026 Last MPC meeting of 2026 [11] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 21 Jan 2027 First MPC meeting of 2027 [11] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · TURKEY · strature.net

The other side

If energy prices ease, the central bank may have room to cut further (Strature's view): inflation is below 30% and reserves rose by US$21.6bn in six weeks [3][4]. Lower rates would cheapen credit for Turkish buyers of capital goods, and Canadian exporters to Türkiye would gain from stronger demand (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Press Release on Interest Rates (2026-45). Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. One-week repo rate, history of changes. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting (2026-42). Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye · 17 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. TÜİK Eylül enflasyonunu açıkladı. Forbes Türkiye · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Turkish central bank sticks to 37% policy rate for fifth straight time. bne IntelliNews · 10 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Press Release on Interest Rates (2025-24). Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye · 17 Apr 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Türkiye's energy import bill rises 33.8% in August. Anadolu Agency · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Interim Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Decision (2025-20). Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye · 20 Mar 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. TCMB 2026 yılı toplantı takvimini açıkladı. Bloomberg HT · 28 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks