The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026
The test By 31 Dec 2026, no EU-Canada association track has opened and none of the six drafted summit deliverables is delivered by its test, including if the summit is not held (Strature F-0215).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Nine EU member states have not ratified CETA (Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Poland); 18 have; The Logic reported ten on 9 Sep 2026 [15] [10]
- Likelihood 3 to 4.
- A draft declaration seen by AFP says Canada could also join Galileo or sit on a proposed European security council; AFP reported that the US President had called the associate-member idea a hostile act [4]
- CETA had abolished duties on 99% of tariff lines by 2024 [6]
- Bank of Canada 2024 annual average: C$1.3698 per US$ [14]
- EU-Canada goods and services trade EUR 130bn in 2025; digital trade negotiations under way [6]
Show 6 earlier changes
- Trade minister Sidhu: closing in on a digital trade agreement; nearly C$15bn digital services exports to the EU in 2024 [5]
- Strature brief Q-027 finds Canadian exporters could still claim CETA preferences they leave unused today [7]
- Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026), resolves 31 Dec 2026; it resolves only once Statistics Canada publishes the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods exports [8]
- Canada-EU summit in Montreal, 29-30 Oct 2026; Carney hosts Costa and von der Leyen [1]
- Draft statement: digital trade deal, competition cooperation, EIB minerals pact, 50 water bombers by 2030, Erasmus talks, energy links incl. LNG study [3]
- PMO named the summit dates again, hosted by Canada; EU trade about C$178bn in 2025; EU FDI stock in Canada about C$217bn [2]
Why it matters
Canada hosts the EU's two presidents in Montreal on 29-30 October 2026. A draft joint statement seen by AFP lists deals on digital trade, competition, minerals finance, water bombers, student mobility and energy. Strature registers 12.9% that none is delivered and no association track opens by 31 December (Strature forecast F-0215, 4 Oct 2026). Canada's trade minister said on 23 Oct the sides are closing in on a digital trade deal.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the deals are drafts; the digital deal is not concluded; the US President attacked the associate-member idea. Brakes: a draft statement with named deals; the trade minister's 'closing in' (23 Oct); both EU presidents attend.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: nothing delivered, CETA unchanged.
The other facts on file (4)
- PMO readout from Evian: next Canada-EU summit hosted in Canada, 29-30 Oct 2026 [12] (15 Jun 2026)
- EIB-Canada letter of intent on critical raw materials, non-binding, no money committed [9] (2 Mar 2026)
- EU-Canada Security and Defence Partnership signed 23 Jun 2025 on the margins of the summit [13] (24 Jun 2025)
- US share of Canada's merchandise exports 71.7% in 2025, from 75.9% in 2024 [11] (19 Feb 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Canada
How it spreads
By 31 Dec 2026, no EU-Canada association track has opened and none of the six drafted summit deliverables is delivered by its test, including if the summit is not held (Strature F-0215).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaThe push to trade beyond the US loses its showcase.
- Trade policyCETA, which had abolished duties on 99% of tariff lines by 2024 [6], would remain Canada's whole offer in Europe.
- Digital servicesNo new rules for a C$15bn export flow [5].
- Minerals financeProjects keep only the non-binding EIB letter [9].
Sectors 3
- Technology
- Mining and metals
- Aerospace
Countries 2
- Canada primary
- European Union
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Canada, European Union, France
- Sectors
- Technology, Mining and metals, Aerospace
- Companies
- De Havilland Aircraft of Canada (builder of the drafted water bombers, AFP)
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A partial package
Some deals, such as digital trade, are signed or launched in Montreal; others follow.
- S2
Words, no instruments
The leaders issue a statement of principles; no deal meets its test by 31 Dec.
- S3
A bigger track
The sides open talks on an association-type agreement (F-0211). Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026).
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A joint statement naming signed instruments on 29-30 Oct |
| S2 | No signed text on the Council or PMO pages by mid-November |
| S3 | A Commission recommendation to open talks |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
Where the card uses it The sides open talks on an association-type agreement (F-0211). Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026).
Other forecasts the card links Open one for what it forecasts and where the card uses it
F-02128%Forecasts: The full package, and the EU share holds above 2025
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0212: 8% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027
F-021347%Forecasts: A partial package, and the EU share holds above 2025
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0213: 47% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027
F-021418.3%Forecasts: A package (full or partial), but the EU share falls back
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0214: 18.3% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027
F-021512.9%Forecasts: The summit delivers none of it
Statistics Canada October 2026 trade release: the F-0215 data test (the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods exports must be published for F-0215 to resolve). Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026)
Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027
F-02161.8%Forecasts: All other outcomes
The card links it as a related forecast.
Strature forecast F-0216: 1.8% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026 · brief Q-027
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 8 Dec 2026 Statistics Canada October 2026 trade release: the F-0215 data test (the August-October 2026 EU share of Canadian goods exports must be published for F-0215 to resolve). Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026) [8] Tentative · Outside event
- 31 Dec 2026 F-0215 resolves. Strature forecast F-0215: 12.9% (4 Oct 2026) [8] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
An empty summit costs Canadian exporters little at once: CETA's terms stay in force, and Q-027 finds exporters could still claim preferences they leave unused today [7]. A summit that delivers would give digital services and minerals projects new terms with the EU (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Beyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
- US tariffs and Canada
- Canada
- European Union
- France's National Assembly votes down CETA, the EU-Canada trade deal Shares a channel: Both turn on the Canada-EU relationship in late 2026.
- The Canada-ASEAN trade deal misses its November 2026 target Shares a channel: Both test Canada's diversification deals in late 2026 (Strature's view).
- The US tariff wall around Canada and Mexico stays up or grows Driven by: The US squeeze is why Canada seeks European deals (Strature's view).
Sources
15 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Media Accreditation for the Canada-EU Summit. Global Affairs Canada · 2 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Prime Minister Carney to strengthen Canada's ties with European partners. Prime Minister of Canada · 12 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU and Canada to announce digital trade, minerals deals at October summit (AFP). Turkiye Today · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Canada-EU summit seeks deepened alliance as US ties fray (AFP). France 24 · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Canada, EU 'closing in' on digital trade deal ahead of summit: minister. Global News (The Canadian Press) · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EU-Canada relations. European Commission · undated · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Beyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit (Decision Brief No. 027, Edition 1.0). Strature · 5 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Forecast register, F-0211 to F-0216. Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- EIB and Canada team up to strengthen critical raw material resilience. European Investment Bank · 2 Mar 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Major partnership between Canada and EU on track for October reveal, says envoy. The Logic · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025. Statistics Canada · 19 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Prime Minister Carney meets with European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Prime Minister of Canada · 15 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Security and Defence: EU and Canada sign Security and Defence Partnership. European External Action Service · 24 Jun 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Annual Exchange Rates. Bank of Canada · undated · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). European Commission, DG Trade · 5 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks