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World risk · Energy and resources · Food, climate & health

Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the grid operator (NGCP) carries out manual load dropping (rotating brownouts) on the Luzon grid during a red alert on 3 or more separate days.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration2
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 5 to 4.
  2. Visayas: 115 yellow and 44 red alerts by 28 Sep 2026 (NGCP); Garin warned of higher power prices [2]
  3. DOE (Marasigan): occasional Luzon red alerts, frequent during El Niño, not necessarily manual load dropping; Visayas batteries and barges due Q1 2027; NGCP ordered to install over 250 MW of batteries [1]
  4. Visayas 3 Sep 2026: 2,187 MW available vs 2,575 MW peak, 388 MW short; NGCP warned of manual load dropping in several areas; 93 yellow and 30 red alerts Jan-3 Sep [7]

Why it matters

PAGASA expects a very strong El Niño to last through the first half of 2027. The energy department said on 12 Oct 2026 that red alerts on the Luzon grid may be frequent during El Niño (as GMA News reported it), but that they need not mean rotating brownouts. Luzon had rotating cuts in the El Niño dry season of 2024 and again on 13 May 2026, when they reached about 1.9 million Meralco customers (low-confidence record). The Visayas grid has already had 44 red alerts this year.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a very strong El Niño through mid-2027 (PAGASA); the DOE expects frequent Luzon red alerts during El Niño; the Visayas shortfall; the last El Niño dry season brought cuts (headline).

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: rotating cuts on Luzon on 3 days.

The other facts on file (5)
  • PAGASA: 81% chance of a very strong El Niño Oct 2026-Jan 2027; 97% chance El Niño lasts through H1 2027 [3] (28 Jul 2026)
  • Visayas 26 Aug 2026: red alert 3-9 pm; 2,237 MW available vs 2,530 MW peak; 938.9 MW on forced outage or derated [8] (26 Aug 2026)
  • Luzon Apr-early Jun 2024 dry season: 11 red and 31 yellow alerts (NGCP) [5] (26 Jun 2024)
  • Luzon rotating brownouts on 18 Apr 2024 [6] (18 Apr 2024)
  • Rotating brownouts on 13 May 2026 reached about 1.9 million Meralco customers; red and yellow alerts on Luzon by 15 May (Wikipedia citing GMA; low confidence) [4] (15 May 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Rotating power cuts return to Luzon in the El Niño dry season: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 27 Oct 2027, the grid operator (NGCP) carries out manual load dropping (rotating brownouts) on the Luzon grid during a red alert on 3 or more separate days.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
  2. Households and firmsRotating cuts of a few hours a day in Metro Manila and nearby provinces [4][6].
  3. Power pricesTight supply and lower hydropower lift power prices [2].
  4. Fuel demandBackup diesel generation raises fuel imports (Strature's view).

Goods 1

  • Diesel

Sectors 3

  • Electricity
  • Electronics and semiconductors
  • Business process outsourcing

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Philippines
Sectors
Electricity, Electronics and semiconductors, Business process outsourcing, Retail
Goods
Diesel

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Alerts, no cuts

    New plants and batteries arrive on time; red alerts are covered by demand response.

  2. S2

    A few hard days

    Hot weeks in April-May 2027 bring rotating cuts on several days, as in 2024.

  3. S3

    A long dry season

    Low hydropower and outages bring weeks of cuts on Luzon and the Visayas.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The DOE's Q1 2027 outlook shows no Luzon shortfall
S2NGCP reports Luzon forced outages large enough to put the grid on red alert on several days in April
S3PAGASA declares drought in most of Luzon

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 Visayas batteries and power barges due (first quarter) [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Apr 2027 Dry, hot season; peak power demand (March-June) [5] Tentative · Window
  3. 27 Oct 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · PHILIPPINES · strature.net

The other side

The shortfall speeds batteries, barges and new plants already ordered. Firms offering demand response, rooftop solar and storage gain business; regulators get a case to speed transmission links.

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Red alert status likely over Luzon grid amid El Niño threat. GMA News · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. DOE: Visayas at risk of grid alerts anew (Brix Lelis). The Philippine Star · 13 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. Very strong El Niño likely from October 2026 to January 2027 - PAGASA. GMA News · 28 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. 2026 Philippine energy crisis. Wikipedia · 9 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. NGCP: No more red, yellow alerts seen for rest of 2024. GMA News · 26 Jun 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. Red alert strikes again: Luzon grid wobbles anew into rotational brownouts. Manila Bulletin · 18 Apr 2024 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Visayas grid logs 123 alerts as supply falters. Daily Tribune · 3 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. Rotating brownouts may hit Visayas consumers on Aug. 26, 2026. GMA News · 26 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 5 to 4 · All risks