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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints · Food, climate & health

Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth

The test FranceAgriMer's first balance of French soft-wheat exports (EU plus third countries) for 2027-28, published between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, is 20% or more below its 2026-27 export figure in the same release, and FranceAgriMer or the ministry names drought or heat as a cause.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute2
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 4 to 3.
  2. Production cut 190 kt to 31.5 Mt; third-country exports raised to 6.5 Mt; end stocks cut by nearly 300 kt to 2.71 Mt, barely 100 kt above end 2025-26 [6]
  3. BRGM at 1 Oct 2026: 66% of points below normal (31% a year earlier); recharge started at 7% (30%) [7]
  4. Third-country exports cut to 6.3 Mt on 16 Sep 2026, against 7.45 Mt the year before [5]
  5. Ministry plan of more than €1bn; July mean 24.9°C above 2003 and 1976; drought over 65% of the territory; 95 departments under water restrictions, 79 at crisis level [1]
  6. ISN €520m (first estimate), rearmament fund €235m, land-tax relief over €300m [1]
  7. FNSEA: at least €10bn of lost production; finance ministry: 0.1 pp off 2026 growth [8]

Why it matters

France's summer of 2026 brought record July heat and drought over 65% of the country, and a farm aid plan of more than €1bn. Soft-wheat output still fell only about 4%, and the first 2026-27 export outlook about 6%. A cut of a fifth needs a much worse 2027 harvest; groundwater going into winter is the weakest sign so far.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: record July heat, the fourth campaign under 70 q/ha since 2017. Brakes: the 2027 crop depends on rain not yet fallen.

Why Impact 4 One major good across France, the EU and North Africa; causes mixed, scored at 5-8%; about €0.7bn, under US$1bn; one marketing year; open market with Russian and Black Sea, Argentine, Australian and Canadian supply.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Agreste first estimate at 1 July: soft wheat 32.0 Mt, down 4%; yield 69.3 q/ha, the fourth campaign under 70 q/ha since 2017; area up about 2.8% [4] (15 Jul 2026)
  • FranceAgriMer first 2026-27 forecast: 7.4 Mt to EU, 7.0 Mt to third countries [2] (22 Jul 2026)
  • 2025-26: 7.9 Mt to EU, 7.4 Mt to third countries [3] (19 Jul 2026)
  • First 2024-25 balance: exports down 15% (2.4 Mt); third countries 7.5 Mt vs 10.2 Mt, EU 6.5 Mt vs 6.2 Mt; crop about 29.7 Mt vs 35.1 Mt [12] (12 Jul 2024)
  • Euronext September wheat €235.25/t on 20 Jul 2026, up €18.75/t on the week; drought and heat and Black Sea conflict cited [11] (21 Jul 2026)
  • AAFC: Canadian wheat excl. durum exports 23.45 Mt in 2026-27; EU heat and dryness support prices [9] (20 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Drought cuts France's first wheat export outlook for 2027-28 by a fifth: Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitINDIAUNITED STATESINDONESIAPERUCOLOMBIAFRANCEMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

FranceAgriMer's first balance of French soft-wheat exports (EU plus third countries) for 2027-28, published between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, is 20% or more below its 2026-27 export figure in the same release, and FranceAgriMer or the ministry names drought or heat as a cause.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaA gain: more room for Canadian wheat exports (23.45 Mt forecast for 2026-27 [9]).
  2. French farms and budgetA second bad year on top of the plan of more than €1bn [1] and at least €10bn of 2026 losses [8].
  3. ImportersMorocco (recently almost half of France's third-country wheat [10]) and EU partners (7.9 Mt in 2025-26 [3]) buy more from Russia and the Black Sea [3][10], Argentina, Australia [10] or Canada [9].
  4. Wheat pricesAAFC cited EU heat and dryness as support for wheat prices in August [9]; a smaller French surplus would tighten supply to the same buyers (Strature's view).

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Agriculture and food
  • Ports and logistics

Who is exposed

Countries
France, Morocco, European Union
Sectors
Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
Goods
Wheat

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Normal winter, average crop

    Recharge and spring rain return; the 2027 crop is near the five-year average and exports move by less than 10%.

  2. S2

    Dry spring, moderate cut

    A dry spring takes yields well below 2026's 69.3 q/ha [4]; exports fall 10-20%, short of the threshold.

  3. S3

    Second drought year

    Weak recharge and a hot, dry spring cut the crop; the first 2027-28 balance shows exports down a fifth or more, with carry-in stocks of 2.71 Mt, cut by nearly 300 kt in October.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1BRGM bulletins showing recharge under way by Feb 2027
S2Agreste first 2027 estimate, Jul 2027
S3water restrictions back in spring 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 BRGM groundwater bulletin at 1 November [7] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Nov 2026 FranceAgriMer monthly cereal balance [6] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 2027 Yield-loss reference period lengthened from five to eight years, from the 2027 campaign [1] Declared · Outside event
  4. Jul 2027 Agreste first estimate of the 2027 harvest (figures at 1 Jul in 2026) [4] Tentative · Outside event
  5. Jul 2027 FranceAgriMer first 2027-28 cereal balance (16 Jul in 2026) [2] Tentative · Strature date
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · FRANCE · strature.net

The other side

A short French crop opens markets for other exporters. Canadian wheat (excluding durum), forecast at 23.45 Mt of exports in 2026-27 [9], could win buyers in North Africa and Europe.

Connected in Strature

Sources

12 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Plus d'1 milliard d'euros débloqués par le Gouvernement pour soutenir les agriculteurs et la continuité de la production à la suite de la sécheresse. Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Agro-alimentaire et de la Souveraineté alimentaire · 4 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Céréales : premières prévisions françaises pour 2026/27 dans un contexte de tensions internationales. FranceAgriMer · 22 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Disponibilités, export, mises en œuvre : ce que révèle le premier bilan 26/27 des céréales françaises. Terre-net · 19 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Récolte de blé tendre 2026 : une 4e campagne sous les 70 q/ha depuis 2017. Terre-net · 15 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Céréales : nette correction à la baisse des prévisions d'export. Agra Presse · 17 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. FranceAgriMer resserre son bilan céréalier. Terre-net (Le Marketlive) · 14 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. En octobre, la situation des nappes phréatiques s'est encore dégradée et reste très préoccupante. Pleinchamp · 13 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. France to give more than 1 billion euros of aid for weather-hit farmers (Reuters). The Star · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops, 2026-08-20. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada · 20 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. Blé tendre : « La campagne 2026-2027 sera une année vérité pour les exportations françaises vers les pays tiers ». Pleinchamp · 11 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Hausse des prix des céréales entre tensions internationales et conditions de culture difficiles. Réussir Les Marchés · 21 Jul 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Vers une baisse d'au moins 15 % des exports de blé tendre français sur 2024/25. Terre-net · 12 Jul 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 26 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks