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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia

The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy declares a programmed natural-gas rationing that stays in force for 14 consecutive days or more.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration3
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. SPEC corrective work 7-8 days, at most 400 Mpcd; thermal demand 485 Mpcd; gap 85 Mpcd; expansion to 533 Mpcd from a 450 Mpcd base (ministry gives 475) (low confidence) [5]
  2. Minister Arboleda: gas deficit possible from Feb 2027; Pacific terminal Nov 2026; Puerto Bahía early 2027; Córdoba 10 Mpcd Feb 2027; CREG auctions Jan and Jun 2027 (low confidence) [4]
  3. Strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through Jan-Mar 2027 [9]
  4. XM projects 484 GBTUD of gas plus 35 GBTUD for Termoyopal [6]
  5. Rationing under Resolution 40524 ended 23:59 on 29 Sep 2026; essential demand fully met; full capacity of 475 Mpcd restored [2]
  6. Programmed gas rationing declared 25 Sep 2026 after a technical fault at SPEC LNG [1]
  7. Marketed gas output down 12% in 2025, 31% vs 2021; reserves 3,164 to 1,717 Gpc; imports 28% of supply Jan-Aug 2026, 34% in Aug [7]

Why it matters

Colombia now imports a large share of its gas through one LNG terminal at Cartagena. Faults and maintenance there forced programmed gas rationing twice in two years, each for about five days. The mines minister warned on 14 Oct that gas could run short from February 2027, just as El Niño pushes thermal plants to burn more. New import points are due from November. The risk is a rationing that lasts two weeks or more.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: minister's warning of a deficit from Feb 2027; an 85 Mpcd gap between thermal need and SPEC during repairs; falling reserves; El Niño. Brakes: new import points from Nov 2026; SPEC expansion; past rationings short.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: 14 days of rationing to non-essential users.

The other facts on file (1)
  • Five-day rationing 31 Oct-4 Nov 2024 for SPEC maintenance; cuts of 60.3-84.6 GBTUD a day; essential demand prioritised [3] (29 Oct 2024)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in Colombia. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. A gas shortfall forces two weeks or more of gas rationing in ColombiaImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Colombia
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 28 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · COLOMBIA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Colombia's Ministry of Mines and Energy declares a programmed natural-gas rationing that stays in force for 14 consecutive days or more.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
  2. IndustryUsers outside essential demand take the cuts [1][3].
  3. PowerThermal plants short of gas raise power-rationing risk [6].
  4. Fuel costsSwitching to other, costlier fuels [7]; diesel, fuel oil or LPG (Strature's view).

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Colombia
Sectors
Manufacturing, Petrochemicals, Thermal power, Vehicle gas
Goods
Natural gas, LNG, LPG

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Bridged

    The Pacific terminal and Puerto Bahía start on time.

  2. S2

    Short cuts

    Faults bring more five-day rationings.

  3. S3

    Long rationing

    A Feb 2027 deficit and a terminal fault together force weeks of cuts.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1First Pacific cargo regasified in Nov or Dec
S2A new rationing resolution in the dry season
S3SPEC capacity below 400 Mpcd for a week in Jan-Mar

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Pacific regasification terminal due [4] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Jan 2027 CREG reconfiguration auction [4] Tentative · Outside event
  3. Feb 2027 Start of the deficit the minister warned of; Córdoba gas due [4] Tentative · Outside event
  4. Jun 2027 CREG expansion auction [4] Tentative · Outside event
  5. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [4] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · COLOMBIA · strature.net

The other side

Two new import points and the SPEC expansion would end the single-terminal bottleneck. Gas importers, LNG suppliers and firms that move to electricity or solar gain from a crunch that forces the shift.

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Ministerio de Minas y Energía de Colombia decreta racionamiento programado de gas por falla en la planta de SPEC LNG. NTN24 · 25 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  2. Sin afectar la demanda esencial, finaliza racionamiento preventivo de gas tras superar contingencia en SPEC LNG. Ministerio de Minas y Energía · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  3. Es oficial: habrá racionamiento programado de gas en el país por cinco días. Noticias RCN · 29 Oct 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  4. Déficit de gas en Colombia desde 2027. ABC Economía · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  5. Riesgo de racionamiento de energía en Colombia: XM y gas. ABC Economía · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  6. XM advierte riesgo de déficit de energía para el verano 2026-2027. La FM · 2026-10 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  7. Déficit de gas ya es estructural: Promigas plantea cinco medidas para enfrentarlo. Forbes Colombia · 15 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 27 Oct 2026
  8. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks