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Key question KQ-02 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

By 31 December 2026, does the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods end, ease or last, and if it lasts, what happens to Canada's sales to the US on those lines?

From Q-022 Sealed 30 Sep 2026 Resolves by 31 Dec 2026 Open

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. The duty lasts, US-bound sales cut

    28% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    The duty lasts, and those exports fall by 10% to 33.3%.

    F-0159 · Open

  2. The duty lasts, US-bound sales hold

    25.2% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    The duty lasts, and first-published exports to the US on the listed lines for September and October 2026 fall by less than 10% from a year earlier, or rise.

    F-0158 · Open

  3. Partial relief

    23% · unlikely · confidence not registered

    The duty does not end, but it is lowered or suspended on a line, a ban is lifted or narrowed, or the list shrinks.

    F-0157 · Open

  4. The duty lasts, US-bound sales collapse

    15.4% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    The duty lasts, and those exports fall by more than 33.3%.

    F-0160 · Open

  5. The duty ends

    7% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    An instrument or court order ends or suspends collection of the duty on every listed line.

    F-0156 · Open

  6. The duty lasts, sales not yet measured

    1.4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    The duty lasts, and Statistics Canada has published neither the September nor the October 2026 trade figures.

    F-0161 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (30 Sep 2026). A 50% US Section 338 duty, proclaimed on 20 July 2026, applies to goods of Canada named in three lists; no instrument read gives it an end date.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%30 Sep 202631 Oct 2026123456
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-015930 Sep 202628%Open
2F-015830 Sep 202625.2%Open
3F-015730 Sep 202623%Open
4F-016030 Sep 202615.4%Open
5F-015630 Sep 20267%Open
6F-016130 Sep 20261.4%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

  • Absorbing the duty erases exporters' margins unless US customers carry at least 54 to 81% of it, and the trade data that show who pays arrive on fixed days.

  • Will the 50% duty last past 31 December 2026?

    By 31 December 2026 the duty lasts or widens in futures we put at 70%, eases on some lines in 23%, ends in 7%; each our estimate, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0156

    “Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, an instrument or all-importer court order (after 2026-09-30) ends or suspends collection of the 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada on every listed line”

  • F-0157

    “Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended but an instrument or all-importer court order (after 2026-09-30) lowers or suspends it on a line, lifts or narrows a ban, restores a carve-out, or cuts the listed classifications on net”

  • F-0158

    “Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and first-published StatCan exports to the US on the fully listed codes (bans excluded) for Sep+Oct 2026 fell by less than 10% y/y, or rose”

  • F-0159

    “Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and first-published StatCan exports to the US on the fully listed codes (bans excluded) for Sep+Oct 2026 fell by 10% to 33.3% y/y”

  • F-0160

    “Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and first-published StatCan exports to the US on the fully listed codes (bans excluded) for Sep+Oct 2026 fell by more than 33.3% y/y”

  • F-0161

    “Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and StatCan has published neither the September nor the October 2026 merchandise trade month”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0156 sealed 30 Sep 2026SHA-256 d897f091d46f2887e9f6e2dcc024c58c081f0664fb61045be8651cf45b33b72a
  • F-0157 sealed 30 Sep 2026SHA-256 26eaecfdeae08457674f79c3a65d4c286b54a5509bfb2dacb56e1bd4d785c0f0
  • F-0158 sealed 30 Sep 2026SHA-256 0e19bbcda83ef9daec54c971204ee8be44ab1633bf7062fdfea47eca407ae2b4
  • F-0159 sealed 30 Sep 2026SHA-256 1248e54bf2b8864dadd5a949ff0ee1189c8b3389e2a2f18944d86f7b6f92a4d1
  • F-0160 sealed 30 Sep 2026SHA-256 364d5f1e3d9866f1f8c352eff3ad026fb9ada4f57f1ef58c14615dcd7a1a5ecb
  • F-0161 sealed 30 Sep 2026SHA-256 8bdaa47706ac9fab85b8a00a191b938cf53550077eb1c68a7107d6670f3950b8

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.