By 31 December 2026 the duty lasts or widens in futures we put at 70%, eases on some lines in 23%, ends in 7%; each our estimate, scored when it resolves.
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Evidence to 30 September 2026; facts refreshed 30 September 2026.
Dashed line: Even odds · 50%
Lasts · 70%
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A 50% US duty under Section 338 reaches Canadian goods on listed tariff lines, and since 29 September 2026, 97 of the 1,413 listed lines are banned outright.
70% is the sum of four of six scenarios for 31 December 2026 in which the duty has neither ended nor eased: US-bound sales hold (25.2%), are cut (28%), collapse (15.4%) or are not yet measured (1.4%). Partial relief carries 23% and an end to the duty 7%. Each is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
What does the 50% duty cost, line by line, and when must Canadian exporters decide?
Prepared for Canadian exporters on listed US tariff lines, and the lenders who finance them. General circulation.
The forecast register’s own words, quoted as registered; a registered forecast is never edited.
F-0156 · The duty ends · 7% · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
“Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, an instrument or all-importer court order (after 2026-09-30) ends or suspends collection of the 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada on every listed line”
F-0157 · Partial relief · 23% · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
“Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended but an instrument or all-importer court order (after 2026-09-30) lowers or suspends it on a line, lifts or narrows a ban, restores a carve-out, or cuts the listed classifications on net”
F-0158 · Lasts, US-bound sales hold · 25.2% · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
“Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and first-published StatCan exports to the US on the fully listed codes (bans excluded) for Sep+Oct 2026 fell by less than 10% y/y, or rose”
F-0159 · Lasts, sales cut · 28% · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
“Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and first-published StatCan exports to the US on the fully listed codes (bans excluded) for Sep+Oct 2026 fell by 10% to 33.3% y/y”
F-0160 · Lasts, sales collapse · 15.4% · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
“Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and first-published StatCan exports to the US on the fully listed codes (bans excluded) for Sep+Oct 2026 fell by more than 33.3% y/y”
F-0161 · Lasts, sales not yet measured · 1.4% · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
“Resolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended or eased and StatCan has published neither the September nor the October 2026 merchandise trade month”
Resolves · on the forecast register
Each answer is quoted verbatim from the brief, with the section that answers it and the countries it touches. Answers with a register ID are our estimates, scored when they resolve; the others are the brief’s reading of the evidence, not forecasts.
“Absorbing the 50% erases margins unless US customers carry at least 54 to 81% with no sales lost; at the mildest loss, 88 to 91%, paper and electrical only (our calculation). Decision point: 4 November, confirmed 8 December.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“By 31 December 2026 the duty lasts or widens in futures we put at 70%, eases on some lines in 23%, ends in 7%; each our estimate, scored when it resolves.”
On the register: F-0156 7%, open · F-0157 23%, open · F-0158 25%, open · F-0159 28%, open · F-0160 15%, open · F-0161 1%, open. The forecast register
Primary Canada Affected United States
“No instrument read ends or cuts the Section 338 duty or gives it an end date, which means an exporter could plan on it lasting into 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Whether the duty bites is decided by the ten-digit tariff line, not by the sector a firm belongs to.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“No filing we read shows US customers dropping Canadian suppliers, and every period in them ended before the duty began.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Absorbing the duty erases the margin in the five largest groups unless US customers carry at least 54 to 81% of it, with no sales lost (our calculation).”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Most tariff relief must be repaid, and none of it is sized to the US duty.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Every Section 338 instrument so far was a US proclamation or customs bulletin, which means the CUSMA review has not been where an exporter's duty is set.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“No suit against the Section 338 duty has been found, which means a court exit, at the only pace on record, would stop collection after June 2027.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Our reading of the published rules, not a customs ruling: a US finishing step leaves the duty in place, because it is charged as the Canadian article crosses.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Other markets take only a slice of what Canada ships to the US today, since the US buys almost all of it.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“Of 12 relocation announcements on record, 9 cut Canadian capacity and none moves a whole plant to the US.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“The review that could end the duty has no date, while the trade data that show who pays arrive on fixed days.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“If a court strikes the Section 338 duty, the refund goes to whoever entered the goods, not to the firm that made them.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“On the worked line, a redirect breaks even after 9.9 months and a move with an unlisted input after 36”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
“No listed line had a trade month after the duty began, and no exporter or US buyer filing covered a period after 22 August 2026.”
The brief’s reading of the evidence; not a registered forecast.Primary Canada Affected United States
Ranked by their band on the published materiality lines, then by the number of channels in that band; the lead figure comes from our country reading where one is published. Strature research from public sources, not from this brief.
Registered forecasts are never changed: they stay as issued and are scored as registered. Facts found after the research date are listed here with their date and source.
Each estimate is our estimate, scored when it resolves.
| No. | Forecast | Our estimate | Issued | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-0156 | the duty ends | 7% | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0157 | partial relief | 23% | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0158 | the duty lasts, US-bound sales hold | 25.2% | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0159 | the duty lasts, US-bound sales cut | 28% | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0160 | the duty lasts, US-bound sales collapse | 15.4% | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
| F-0161 | the duty lasts, sales not yet measured | 1.4% | Issued 30 Sep 2026 | Resolves 31 Dec 2026 | Open |
No fact has been added since the research date.
No new forecast is issued with these facts; a new view would be a new, separately dated forecast.
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