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Ecuador

Canada supplied 56.2% of Ecuador's wheat imports in 2025, the High band. Ecuador also sells crude to the US, where Canada is the largest supplier. Approved reading

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  • Region Americas · South America
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Ecuador in our readings

Ecuador is in 1 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • US tariffs and Canada High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to October 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Low
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

  • Geopolitics and conflict

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    6.4 /10range 5.1–7.6 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: European Commission Joint Research Centre (INFORM), INFORM Risk; Natural Earth; Strature, forecast register; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP battle deaths; Uppsala Conflict Data Program, UCDP event data; World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Supply chains and chokepoints

    Outlook

    Low

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Energy and resources

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Technology and cyber

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

  • Regulation and compliance

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    6.0 /10range 5.1–7.0 partial

    First published October 2026: no earlier range to compare, so no arrow.

    Data: World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators

  • Finance and markets

    Outlook

    Not yet set

    Index

    Not enough open data for an index score.

Compare Ecuador on the outlook map

Dates for Ecuador on the risk calendar

Key questions (1)
The other side: 2 lines from our readings and register

General information, not advice.

Risks that reach Ecuador

  • US tariffs and Canada High

    • F-0177 · Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries · 40%, our estimate, scored when it resolves · resolves by 30 Sep 2027 · Open · brief C-006

    US tariffs and Canada

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Ecuador makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Not dated Ratification of the reported Canada-Ecuador trade agreement in both countries. US tariffs and Canada
  • End Oct 2026 US EIA crude imports by origin for August. US tariffs and Canada

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Ecuador?
  • Which of the forecasts above bear on our plans in Ecuador, and which outcome would change them?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Ecuador on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Ecuador.

US tariffs and Canada · Strature analysis, not from the brief

US tariffs and Canada: what is at stake for Ecuador

Canada supplied 56.2% of Ecuador's wheat imports in 2025, the High band. Ecuador also sells crude to the US, where Canada is the largest supplier.

Theme band High

56.2%

Wheat imports supplied by Canada (2025)

US$0.29bn

Canada's wheat exports to Ecuador, US$bn (2025)

169

US crude imports from Ecuador, thousand b/d (Jul 2026)

C$1.68bn

Canadian mining assets, C$m (2024)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • More than half of Ecuador's wheat comes from Canada: US$0.34bn of US$0.61bn in 2025.
  • US crude imports from Ecuador ranged from 35 thousand barrels a day in Feb 2026 to 183 in May.
  • If Venezuelan heavy crude gains in US refineries (F-0177), Ecuador's grades compete for the same buyers.

Opportunities

  • A Canada-Ecuador trade agreement was reported in Jul 2026 to let 99.6% of Ecuador's exportable goods enter Canada duty-free once in force (press report). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Canadian mining assets in Ecuador were C$1,676m in 2024.

Uncertainties

  • Canada's wheat share moves from year to year: 51.0% in 2024 and 56.2% in 2025.
  • Ecuador's pro-rata share of Canada's US crude sales, US$4.36bn, is an upper bound, not a forecast.

What to watch

  • Not datedRatification of the reported Canada-Ecuador trade agreement in both countries.
  • End Oct 2026US EIA crude imports by origin for August.
  • 30 Sep 2027F-0177 resolves: Venezuelan heavy crude displacing Canadian crude in US refineries.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Supply from Canada (wheat)Dependence56.2% of imports of the good 2025Canada's share of the country's imports of wheat (HS 1001)HighHigh ≥50% · Medium 25–50%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Ecuador: wheat from Canada and crude shares (2025), %
Canada's share of the country's imports of wheat (HS 1001): 56.2% of imports of the good (2025)Wheat56.2Ecuador's share of US crude oil (HS 2709) imports: 1.87% of US imports (2025)Crude oil1.9

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: UN Comtrade (public API), Ecuador's imports by partner, as reported by Ecuador; UN Comtrade (public API), US imports of crude oil (HS 2709) by partner, as reported by the United States.

Briefs and questions

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Pro-rata share of Canada's US crude (HS 2709) sales: Ecuador (illustrative diversion ceiling): US$4.36bn (= US imports from Canada × (Ecuador's US imports / US imports from all non-Canadian origins))

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 6 Oct 2026. General research, not advice. Who else is exposed: US tariffs and Canada →

ISO 3166-1 name: Ecuador (ECU). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Ecuador”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/ecu/, 31 Oct 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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