Key question KQ-17 · Energy and resources
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries
40% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0177 · Open
It does not happen
60%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). Crude's one route to Asia is filling, and 87.4% of Canada's crude exports still went to the US in January-June 2026.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0177 | 1 Oct 2026 | 40% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
It tests whether Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian crude in US refineries, Canada's main outlet.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0177
“Happened if Canada's share of US crude imports falls while Venezuela's rises, over the twelve months to 30 Sep 2027 (need: US crude imports by origin, US Energy Information Administration).”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.