Key question KQ-12 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Washington opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act
20% · unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0170 · Open
It does not happen
80%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). Washington has moved Canada's digital rules before, within days.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0170 | 1 Oct 2026 | 20% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
A Section 301 investigation would put Canada's streaming and digital rules under formal US trade pressure.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0170
“Happened if, by 30 Sep 2027, USTR publishes a Federal Register notice initiating a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act or its contribution regime.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.