Is the People's Bank of China's January-May 2027 change in household loans, published by 25 Jun 2027, zero or negative, or positive?
From C-005Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 25 Jun 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
Household credit Jan-May 2027: still repaying
72% · likely · confidence not registered
Household loans are flat or fall over January-May 2027: the change is zero or negative.
F-0217 · Open
2
Household credit Jan-May 2027: borrowing again
25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
Household loans rise over January-May 2027.
F-0218 · Open
3
Household credit Jan-May 2027: all other outcomes
3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
No January-May 2027 household-loan change is published by the central bank by 25 Jun 2027.
F-0219 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). Households paid down RMB1.03tn of loans in January-August, while the state put its new borrowing into clearing local governments' old debts.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0217
10 Oct 2026
72%
Open
2
F-0218
10 Oct 2026
25%
Open
3
F-0219
10 Oct 2026
3%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Finance and markets
The brief finds Beijing is putting money into bank capital and housing, not cheaper credit, so households get no new reason to borrow.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0217
“Happened if the PBoC's January-May 2027 change in household loans (as defined for the set), published by 25 Jun 2027, is zero or negative.”
F-0218
“Happened if the PBoC's January-May 2027 change in household loans (as defined for the set), published by 25 Jun 2027, is positive.”
F-0219
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened on 2027-06-25: no January-May 2027 household-loan change (as defined for the set) is published by the PBoC by 25 Jun 2027.”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0217 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 57d047234ac3cb79c28167e62765832f020ba42f530bcdc38147a1d8b118337a
F-0218 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 ff2b43bd11fe16a28d5d0f316a4a30482954c98aa87f680bd2ab2a92fae883d1
F-0219 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 a8bc509f66260e641ca75a28bb731191f417e00ba650a094e5b5608fc7805d03
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.