Is combined spending of China's two main budgets in 2026, read from the Ministry of Finance release published by 28 Feb 2027, below 2025's?
From C-005Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 28 Feb 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
Two-budget spending 2026: below 2025
82% · very likely · confidence not registered
Combined 2026 spending of the two main budgets is below 2025.
F-0220 · Open
2
Two-budget spending 2026: at or above 2025
15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
Combined 2026 spending is at or above 2025.
F-0221 · Open
3
Two-budget spending 2026: all other outcomes
3% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
No Ministry of Finance release published by 28 Feb 2027 lets 2026 spending be compared with 2025.
F-0222 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). Spending on the two main budgets fell in January-August, while the state put its new borrowing into clearing local governments' old debts.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0220
10 Oct 2026
82%
Open
2
F-0221
10 Oct 2026
15%
Open
3
F-0222
10 Oct 2026
3%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Finance and markets
The brief finds local financing vehicles are being shut down to a 2028 deadline, with about RMB5tn of their bonds due by end-2027.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0220
“Happened if combined general-public-budget and government-fund-budget spending for January-December 2026, as defined for the set and read from the MoF release published by 28 Feb 2027, is below January-December 2025.”
F-0221
“Happened if combined general-public-budget and government-fund-budget spending for January-December 2026, as defined for the set and read from the MoF release published by 28 Feb 2027, is at or above January-December 2025.”
F-0222
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened on 2027-02-28: no MoF release published by that date lets combined 2026 spending be compared with 2025 (as defined for the set).”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0220 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 29c9661b62271312d22ca49e4ff711ab5ddb4aa180a971e3efd3a017dc6e6456
F-0221 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 747897fdbbcc90c842bcd371e17cae1aa9aa126a5f20883ae413c7c453f718e4
F-0222 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 407d397c1a66bc46f3403cae34fc2b83c2c30dcacdecb8d494be1e7518af75b1
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.