KQ-24: Where does the yuan stand against the US dollar at the end of 2026, on the US Federal Reserve's H.10 rate?

Our standing estimate

Four outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Yuan at end-2026: stronger than 6.65

50% · roughly even chance · confidence not registered

Below 6.65 yuan per US dollar (a stronger yuan).

F-0205 · Open
Yuan at end-2026: held at 6.65-6.75

33% · unlikely · confidence not registered

From 6.65 to 6.75 yuan per US dollar.

F-0206 · Open
Yuan at end-2026: all other outcomes

11% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Above 6.75 and at or below 6.85, or no 2026 rate printed for China.

F-0208 · Open
Yuan at end-2026: weaker than 6.85

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Above 6.85 yuan per US dollar (a weaker yuan).

F-0207 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (3 Oct 2026). A currency debate has reopened over the surplus: the yuan reached its strongest since July 2022 in September.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0205	3 Oct 2026	50%	Open
2	F-0206	3 Oct 2026	33%	Open
3	F-0208	3 Oct 2026	11%	Open
4	F-0207	3 Oct 2026	6%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Finance and markets

Whether Beijing lets the yuan keep rising is part of how the surplus is argued with its partners.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

China

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0205
“Happened if the US Federal Reserve H.10 rate for China for 31 Dec 2026 (or its last rate dated in 2026) is below 6.65 yuan per US dollar.”
F-0206
“Happened if the US Federal Reserve H.10 rate for China for 31 Dec 2026 (or its last rate dated in 2026) is at or above 6.65 and at or below 6.75 yuan per US dollar.”
F-0207
“Happened if the US Federal Reserve H.10 rate for China for 31 Dec 2026 (or its last rate dated in 2026) is above 6.85 yuan per US dollar.”
F-0208
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened by 2026-12-31: the H.10 rate for China for 31 Dec 2026 (or its last 2026 rate) is above 6.75 and at or below 6.85, or H.10 prints no 2026 rate for China.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0205 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 8661199fd062a4e4bfc7035667434501b2999f12ee00917ff8b6b818f8e2aa9a
F-0206 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 d57d6f889a9e6e18c966cf045a1ed6577b51277d53da3c46a90d48c7c43a5296
F-0207 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 991836929d9c4f4bdbbaa200e25525f8dd25f8373d18ee3192231e0e8aa9a735
F-0208 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 d2a238bda29872f5396512774adb09119530d8e5bc47a2641891fa72d1f93b1c

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.