Key question KQ-25 · Trade, tariffs and sanctions
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Risk: The US raises tariffs on Chinese goods generally above the truce level
10% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
F-0209 · Open
It does not happen
90%
The situation when it was sealed (3 Oct 2026). Relations with Washington run on a summit calendar, not a treaty, and the truce was extended only to 10 January.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0209 | 3 Oct 2026 | 10% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
A general tariff rise would end the truce the brief's dated clocks depend on.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0209
“Happened if, on or before 10 Jan 2027, a US proclamation or Federal Register notice raising the additional tariff on all or substantially all Chinese-origin goods above the rate in force on 2 Oct 2026 has taken effect.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.