Key question KQ-09 · Energy and resources
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
The Labrador hydro programme misses its own date for binding agreements
60% · likely · confidence not registered
F-0171 · Open
It does not happen
40%
The situation when it was sealed (1 Oct 2026). The parties to the Labrador hydro programme set 31 December 2026 as their own date to sign long-form definitive agreements.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0171 | 1 Oct 2026 | 60% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
The test is whether the parties keep their own timetable, judged on their own releases.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0171
“Happened if the long-form definitive agreements are not signed by 31 Dec 2026, on the parties' own releases.”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.