Key question KQ-26 · Supply chains and chokepoints
One forecast: the estimate that it happens, and its complement. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
Risk: China halts rare-earth permanent-magnet export licences to US or EU buyers generally
4% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
F-0210 · Open
It does not happen
96%
The situation when it was sealed (3 Oct 2026). China's October-2025 export controls are suspended, not removed, and the April-2025 licensing was never lifted.
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
| No. | Row | Sealed | Estimate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | F-0210 | 3 Oct 2026 | 4% | Open |
No reassessment yet.
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
The test is whether China uses the licensing it never lifted against buyers in general.
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0210
“Happened if, by 10 Jan 2027, China halts licences for rare-earth permanent-magnet exports to US or EU buyers generally (not named entities only).”
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.