KQ-29: On 10 Jan 2027, does the truce run on free, at a price in China's exports or the yuan, or has it lapsed or been hit by a broad US or EU measure?

Our standing estimate

Four outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

The truce past 10 Jan 2027: rolled free

68% · likely · confidence not registered

The truce runs on to a stated later end date with no new Chinese commitment on export volumes, export prices or the yuan, and no broad US or EU measure in force (new purchase pledges allowed).

F-0223 · Open
The truce past 10 Jan 2027: rolled at a price

13% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The truce runs on carrying a new Chinese commitment on export volumes, export prices or the yuan, with no broad US or EU measure in force.

F-0224 · Open
The truce past 10 Jan 2027: lapsed or hit

13% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The truce has lapsed, or a broad US or EU measure took effect between 9 Oct 2026 and 10 Jan 2027.

F-0225 · Open
The truce past 10 Jan 2027: all other outcomes

6% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The truce runs on with no new Chinese commitment, no broad US or EU measure in force and no stated end date.

F-0226 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). Every US pause since Busan has been bought with a Chinese pause, while both sides keep bigger threats in reserve.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0223	10 Oct 2026	68%	Open
2	F-0224	10 Oct 2026	13%	Open
3	F-0225	10 Oct 2026	13%	Open
4	F-0226	10 Oct 2026	6%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

The brief asks on what terms the truce is rolled at 10 January 2027: free, at a price in China's exports or currency, or not at all.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

China

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0223
“Happened if, on 10 Jan 2027, the truce runs on (as defined for the set) to a stated later end date, carrying no new Chinese commitment on export volumes, export prices or the yuan, with no broad US or EU measure in force (new purchase pledges allowed).”
F-0224
“Happened if, on 10 Jan 2027, the truce runs on (as defined for the set) carrying a new Chinese commitment on export volumes, export prices or the yuan (as defined for the set), with no broad US or EU measure in force.”
F-0225
“Happened if, on 10 Jan 2027, the truce has lapsed (as defined for the set), or a broad US or EU measure (as defined for the set) has taken effect between 9 Oct 2026 and 10 Jan 2027.”
F-0226
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened on 2027-01-10: the truce runs on (as defined for the set) with no new Chinese commitment on exports or the yuan, no broad US or EU measure in force, and no stated end date.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0223 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 28eef65d550f9ba4095b5709864dc94b3fe1acb0c67b25abd5451095cc266cde
F-0224 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 7e0594b8ee671fa06a36e15bc46863f02d559748ec5b9ef2c80254ff83689754
F-0225 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 bbae26b052392077add02b95d697d8ef712b6698dcdd8b3a5c5cb5cb65d25e52
F-0226 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 8fbe57bac20e722bfba0b3c0beb0eeb380d9aed06a193c825304c1f52da24989

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.