Are China's January-May 2027 goods exports in US dollars, as first published by customs by 15 Jun 2027, above the same months of 2026?
From C-005Sealed 10 Oct 2026Resolves by 15 Jun 2027Open
Our standing estimate
Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.
1
Exports Jan-May 2027: still above 2026
86% · very likely · confidence not registered
January-May 2027 goods exports in US dollars are above January-May 2026.
F-0227 · Open
2
Exports Jan-May 2027: at or below 2026
12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered
January-May 2027 goods exports in US dollars are at or below January-May 2026.
F-0228 · Open
3
Exports Jan-May 2027: all other outcomes
2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered
No customs release published by 15 Jun 2027 lets the two periods be compared.
F-0229 · Open
The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). Exports to Asia and Africa grow fastest and to the US slowest, while the trade cases against them come from Europe.
How it moved
Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.
Row
Sealed
Estimate
Status
1
F-0227
10 Oct 2026
86%
Open
2
F-0228
10 Oct 2026
12%
Open
3
F-0229
10 Oct 2026
2%
Open
Reassessments
No reassessment yet.
Signposts
What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.
No signpost is published for this question yet.
Why it matters, by category
Trade, tariffs and sanctions
The brief's call is that exports keep growing and factory profits recover while household demand does not turn.
Countries it touches
The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.
The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.
F-0227
“Happened if China's January-May 2027 goods exports in US dollars, as first published by GAC (as defined for the set) by 15 Jun 2027, are above January-May 2026.”
F-0228
“Happened if China's January-May 2027 goods exports in US dollars, as first published by GAC (as defined for the set) by 15 Jun 2027, are at or below January-May 2026.”
F-0229
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened on 2027-06-15: no GAC release published by that date lets January-May 2027 US-dollar exports be compared with January-May 2026 (as defined for the set).”
The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
F-0227 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 aeda54588c9e98722d23f947e5586c5db26c076d83267cb0b4609a374ef13022
F-0228 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 d1241011d4b302f8e5339a8d3aead5270c6ab96268a99c909fe86272af663749
F-0229 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 4678c3e1a0dfbbd811693c3cd2e44b2b68fcf7038f65ff2591ac448ec30f9995
Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.