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Key question KQ-31 · Finance and markets

Does the 2027 Government Work Report, published in full by 31 Mar 2027, set a numeric target for the household consumption share of GDP or a new nationwide cash transfer to households?

From C-005 Sealed 10 Oct 2026 Resolves by 31 Mar 2027 Open

Our standing estimate

Three outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

  1. Work report, March 2027: no turn, no household target

    83% · very likely · confidence not registered

    No numeric target for the household consumption share of GDP and no new nationwide cash transfer to households.

    F-0230 · Open

  2. Work report, March 2027: a turn, target or cash transfer

    15% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

    A numeric target for the household consumption share of GDP, or a new nationwide cash transfer to households.

    F-0231 · Open

  3. Work report, March 2027: all other outcomes

    2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

    No 2027 Government Work Report is published in full by 31 Mar 2027.

    F-0232 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (10 Oct 2026). Households are still paying down debt, and the brief's call is that household demand does not turn through mid-2027.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

How the estimates moved: each point is a sealed register row; the figures are in the table that follows.050100%10 Oct 202631 Oct 2026123
The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.
Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.RowSealedEstimateStatus
1F-023010 Oct 202683%Open
2F-023110 Oct 202615%Open
3F-023210 Oct 20262%Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Finance and markets

  • A turn to households in the March report would cut against the brief's call that household demand does not turn.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

  • F-0230

    “Happened if the 2027 Government Work Report (as defined for the set), published in full by 31 Mar 2027, sets no numeric target for the household consumption share of GDP and no new nationwide cash transfer to households (both as defined for the set).”

  • F-0231

    “Happened if the 2027 Government Work Report (as defined for the set), published in full by 31 Mar 2027, sets a numeric target for the household consumption share of GDP or a new nationwide cash transfer to households (both as defined for the set).”

  • F-0232

    “Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened on 2027-03-31: no 2027 Government Work Report (as defined for the set) is published in full by that date.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint
  • F-0230 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 ead53c27f51a564f89f7ceaf3d6993637b88f989c2dbc895336ec9b73b39a79c
  • F-0231 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 512695f1095fcd57d106e28a86259b28d6b13086a7867c6445e6ab3b26fd6125
  • F-0232 sealed 10 Oct 2026SHA-256 6090ce1ac4373321d0efdd0a42d606fd62c5a05f6608ba1aac9597524a1dedb6

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.