KQ-05: By 31 December 2028, how much more large-load grid capacity will Alberta allocate, and will British Columbia repeat its call for demand?

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

1,200 to 2,400 MW more large-load contract capacity in Alberta; no repeat BC Hydro call.

F-0181 · Open
Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call

25% · unlikely · confidence not registered

1,200 to 2,400 MW more in Alberta, and BC Hydro holds another call.

F-0182 · Open
Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call

18% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Over 2,400 MW more in Alberta; no repeat BC Hydro call.

F-0183 · Open
Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call

12% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Over 2,400 MW more in Alberta, and BC Hydro holds another call.

F-0184 · Open
Alberta allocates nothing further and BC repeats its call

11% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

No further large-load contract capacity in Alberta, but BC Hydro holds another call for demand.

F-0180 · Open
Alberta allocates nothing further and BC does not repeat its call

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

No further large-load contract capacity on Alberta's list, and no repeat BC Hydro call for demand.

F-0179 · Open

If Alberta allocates 1 to 1,199 MW more by 31 December 2028, no alternative fits and every Alberta band is scored as not happening; the brief prints this gap as a defect of the registration.

The situation when it was sealed (2 Oct 2026). No Canadian province makes a place in the grid queue a right to power: Alberta converted at most 6 per cent of its list.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0181	2 Oct 2026	25%	Open
2	F-0182	2 Oct 2026	25%	Open
3	F-0183	2 Oct 2026	18%	Open
4	F-0184	2 Oct 2026	12%	Open
5	F-0180	2 Oct 2026	11%	Open
6	F-0179	2 Oct 2026	9%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

What would change the model's result?
If own generation in Alberta can be done in 33 months rather than 36, a move of 9 per cent, own generation moves first; if the non-Canadian route is slower than 36 months, the same happens. Read it in the brief

Why it matters, by category

Energy and resources

The brief finds Alberta's round rewarded readiness, not time in the queue, so for a data centre or other large load a queue position alone does not secure power.
What can a large electricity load get connected in Canada, where, and by when?
No province makes a queue position a right to power. Alberta allocating 1,200–2,400 MW more by end-2028 carries 50%, our estimate, scored when it resolves. Read it in the brief
What are the futures for large-load allocation to 2028?
Half the registered weight, 50%, our estimate, scored when it resolves, sits where Alberta allocates 1,200–2,400 MW more by 31 December 2028. Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0179
“Resolves if, by 2028-12-31, Alberta allocates nothing further and BC does not repeat its call”
F-0180
“Resolves if, by 2028-12-31, Alberta allocates nothing further and BC repeats its call”
F-0181
“Resolves if, by 2028-12-31, Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call”
F-0182
“Resolves if, by 2028-12-31, Alberta allocates 1,200-2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call”
F-0183
“Resolves if, by 2028-12-31, Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC does not repeat its call”
F-0184
“Resolves if, by 2028-12-31, Alberta allocates over 2,400 MW more and BC repeats its call”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0179 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 dfe1ca81b76cf7b0aefc67403c0b0abb692101120cf30b5c7fd5e9c5a5eee673
F-0180 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 0e6b2472bf1623f27c4b64e8a574666e9d14a0cf36e89e04a7079ad1040a8931
F-0181 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 b48b8fc56e56fbd7c0d46a97008cd3047ed75eee6491a7fea4bbf737c9fdfba2
F-0182 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 15ed722e943f3193a03545a541419d4da8d79d3c329516d4ed344a7494975485
F-0183 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 139ca46bc4146cd096eed4cc2bc9a2f925f2c8489946c7422e3cb65d01711117
F-0184 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 d62fa85c2e126f51817401f05c49f28ce86d33e72396054098094ec190afb38d

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.