KQ-22: Does China's 2026 goods surplus pass the 2025 record, and does the US or the EU put a new broad trade-defence measure on Chinese goods by 31 Dec 2026?

Our standing estimate

Four outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

2026 surplus: past the record, without a new US or EU measure

80% · very likely · confidence not registered

The 2026 surplus, in US dollars as first published by China's customs, is above the 2025 figure, and no new broad US or EU measure took effect.

F-0195 · Open
2026 surplus: past the record, with a new US or EU measure

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The surplus is above the 2025 figure, and a broad US or EU measure took effect between 2 Oct and 31 Dec 2026.

F-0196 · Open
2026 surplus: short of the record, without a new measure

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

The surplus is at or below the 2025 figure, and no broad measure took effect.

F-0197 · Open
2026 surplus: all other outcomes

2% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

The surplus is at or below the 2025 figure with a broad measure in force, or no full-year US-dollar figure is readable by 31 Jan 2027.

F-0198 · Open

The situation when it was sealed (3 Oct 2026). China's goods surplus reached a record US$1.18 trillion in 2025 on the revised customs basis, and exports grew 24.7% in August.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0195	3 Oct 2026	80%	Open
2	F-0196	3 Oct 2026	9%	Open
3	F-0197	3 Oct 2026	9%	Open
4	F-0198	3 Oct 2026	2%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

No signpost is published for this question yet.

Why it matters, by category

Trade, tariffs and sanctions

The brief judges that how long partners keep absorbing the surplus is the limit that binds China's economy before mid-2027.

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

China

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0195
“Happened if GAC's first published full-year 2026 goods surplus in US dollars is above its 2025 full-year figure on the same basis, AND no broad trade-defence measure (as defined for the set) by the US or the EU took effect against Chinese goods between 2 Oct and 31 Dec 2026.”
F-0196
“Happened if GAC's first published full-year 2026 goods surplus in US dollars is above its 2025 full-year figure on the same basis, AND a broad trade-defence measure (as defined for the set) by the US or the EU took effect against Chinese goods between 2 Oct and 31 Dec 2026.”
F-0197
“Happened if GAC's first published full-year 2026 goods surplus in US dollars is at or below its 2025 full-year figure on the same basis, AND no broad trade-defence measure (as defined for the set) by the US or the EU took effect against Chinese goods between 2 Oct and 31 Dec 2026.”
F-0198
“Happened if none of the set's numbered outcomes happened by 2026-12-31 (read at GAC's full-year release): the 2026 surplus at or below the 2025 record with a broad measure in force, or no readable full-year US-dollar figure by 31 Jan 2027.”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0195 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 97cf16638356bc0bf842f5c429abc41d0878ce0a5b17869c017d393c3c25025d
F-0196 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 7cd28a93fb12080349de08ccaa70fcb4e827b3687d6097d9948ba5a7c4575263
F-0197 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 9c49d43d8cf4ced5b56b50fc89e9e317b6460944793a0bef7e5b04c778e6d366
F-0198 sealed 3 Oct 2026SHA-256 1ae868e3a0647a65ddb124a25395c456a8573ee8135b7812b18dfde2ffdda0a0

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Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.