KQ-06: By 26 June 2030, how many projects will be listed under the Building Canada Act, and will a section 35 rights-holder have started a court challenge relating to the Act?

Our standing estimate

Six outcomes that together make 100%. Our estimate, scored when it resolves.

5 or more projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced

36% · unlikely · confidence not registered

5 or more listing orders published, and a challenge filed.

F-0190 · Open
1-4 projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced

31.5% · unlikely · confidence not registered

1 to 4 listing orders published, and a challenge filed.

F-0188 · Open
1-4 projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced

13.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

1 to 4 listing orders published, and no challenge filed.

F-0187 · Open
5 or more projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced

9% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

5 or more listing orders published, and no challenge filed.

F-0189 · Open
No project is listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced

6.5% · very unlikely · confidence not registered

Nothing listed in the Gazette under the Act, and no section 35 rights-holder files a court challenge relating to it.

F-0185 · Open
No project is listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced

3.5% · almost no chance · confidence not registered

Nothing listed, but a section 35 rights-holder files a challenge.

F-0186 · Open

One project has been listed since these forecasts were registered (order of 1 Oct 2026); they are scored as registered.

The situation when it was sealed (2 Oct 2026). The Building Canada Act lets Ottawa list projects for fast approval until 26 June 2030; one of 18 projects was listed on the records read to 3 October 2026.

How it moved

Each point is a sealed register row. There is one sealed estimate for each outcome so far: a new point is added only when we register a new estimate, and the old one stays listed and scored.

The vertical line is 31 Oct 2026. Numbers match the outcomes above.

Every sealed estimate for this question: outcome number, register row, date sealed, estimate, status
No.	Row	Sealed	Estimate	Status
1	F-0190	2 Oct 2026	36%	Open
2	F-0188	2 Oct 2026	31.5%	Open
3	F-0187	2 Oct 2026	13.5%	Open
4	F-0189	2 Oct 2026	9%	Open
5	F-0185	2 Oct 2026	6.5%	Open
6	F-0186	2 Oct 2026	3.5%	Open

Reassessments

No reassessment yet.

Signposts

What the brief says would move the view, quoted from it.

Would Bill C-39 change the Building Canada Act's clocks?
Bill C-39, at second reading, would end the June 2030 listing limit and move the 30-day disclosure to after issuance. Read it in the brief

Why it matters, by category

Regulation and compliance

The brief finds the Act does not speed up assessment: it substitutes a conclusion for the assessment's outcome, while a section 35 rights-holder gets a consultation process.
What weight did the registered worlds put on a first listing under the Building Canada Act by June 2030?
90% in sum, registered 5 Sep 2026, our estimate, scored when it resolves; one project has been listed since (order of 1 Oct 2026). Read it in the brief

Countries it touches

The countries our register links to these forecasts, most often linked first.

How it resolves

The registered words that decide each forecast, quoted unchanged.

F-0185
“Resolves if, by 2030-06-26, no project is listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced”
F-0186
“Resolves if, by 2030-06-26, no project is listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced”
F-0187
“Resolves if, by 2030-06-26, 1-4 projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced”
F-0188
“Resolves if, by 2030-06-26, 1-4 projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced”
F-0189
“Resolves if, by 2030-06-26, 5 or more projects are listed and no s.35 challenge is commenced”
F-0190
“Resolves if, by 2030-06-26, 5 or more projects are listed and a s.35 challenge is commenced”

The seals: each statement’s SHA-256 fingerprint

F-0185 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 68d1b4fd612729eb29adda05c67871c3b416de1aa9136dc4935f7aab861a78a4
F-0186 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 80e3e7a8ff7eaaf1872ab1098b3ef51fbdce3489c6cb764f2c944c6b9c3b5a75
F-0187 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 fd23e3e85cfca346a99d4dd8415419af0d932e8e324cc8d436691808c865fc9e
F-0188 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 b5871aac769186336ca1d479e5e982ebf5c1ec0dd4194be406115cd754496053
F-0189 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 ff7d73fb906a13c7e2bcf401b8cdd31a68d96a45ce6816dd8a4f58dbf617128f
F-0190 sealed 2 Oct 2026SHA-256 1e42c2b0c4db2aff23f394bd77ff9c548c40b5330108f2bcc4e1a5143c312138

Go further

Each probability is our estimate, scored when it resolves. Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.