#1Forecast · F-0074
Will US or Israeli forces strike Iran between 22 August and 20 November 2026?
Our call 61% · likely · moderate confidence
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Week of 26 Oct 2026 · 6 risks · signed off 22 Oct 2026
This week’s first risk
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This week’s list
#1Forecast · F-0074
Will US or Israeli forces strike Iran between 22 August and 20 November 2026?
Our call 61% · likely · moderate confidence
- Resolves by 20 Nov 2026
- Significance High (value 27.8, week of 26 Oct 2026)
- Reach 39 of 56 countries read are High; 13 Medium
The other side
- Shift on recordOil export revenue reached about US$53bn in Mar-Aug 2026; the UAE is one of two Gulf producers whose oil revenue rose (press estimate).Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, Gulf war and Hormuz (approved 2026-10-06)
- New capacityA second, 1.5 mb/d West-East line due in 2027 would lift pipeline capacity to Fujairah to about 3.3 mb/d.Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, Gulf war and Hormuz (approved 2026-10-06)
- Shift on recordDubai serves as an overland relief corridor for neighbours' cargo.Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, Gulf war and Hormuz (approved 2026-10-06)
And 172 more lines from our readings.
General information, not advice.
Strature Notes
#2Forecast · F-0173
On 30 September 2027, will US tariffs on Canadian goods still be above their 2024 level, with neither government having restored the pre-2025 terms?
Our call 92% · very likely · confidence not registered
- Resolves by 30 Sep 2027
- Significance High (value 18.9, week of 26 Oct 2026)
- Reach 14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium
The other side
- New capacityEGA holds 60% of a planned 750,000-tonne-a-year smelter in Oklahoma, which would put UAE capital inside the US market, past the duties Canadian metal faces at the border.Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, US tariffs on Canada (approved 2026-10-06)
- Diversion ceilingPro rata to 2025 shares, the UAE could take up to US$2.45bn of Canada's US aluminium sales: our calculation, an upper bound, not a forecast.Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, US tariffs on Canada (approved 2026-10-06)
- OpeningAustralia joined Canada's Critical Minerals Production Alliance in Mar 2026.Strature country reading: Australia, US tariffs on Canada (approved 2026-10-06)
And 85 more lines from our readings.
General information, not advice.
#3Question set · C-002
Which of six registered scenarios describes Iran on 18 July 2028, and does any single one become likely?
Our call 13.74% · very unlikely · moderate confidence
For the outcome: Iran to mid-2028: a Guard-managed war of attrition (F-0020)
- Resolves by 18 Jul 2028
- Significance High (value 14.4, week of 26 Oct 2026)
- Reach 39 of 56 countries read are High; 13 Medium
- Adverse outcomes together 32% (F-0020 + F-0011 + F-0009)
The other side
- Upside questionA negotiated off-ramp could reopen exports; C-002 gives it 4.16%, the least likely of six scenarios (our estimate, scored when it resolves).Strature country reading: Islamic Republic of Iran, Gulf war and Hormuz (approved 2026-10-19)
- Upside questionAs of 2028-07-18: a comprehensive negotiated settlement is in force that materially relieves the sanctions wall AND includes verified nuclear limits, signed by an Iranian leadership able to deliver it domestically. YES if such a settlement is in force; NO otherwise. (our estimate, scored when it resolves)Strature forecast register, F-0021 (C-002)
General information, not advice.
Strature Notes
#4Question set · Q-022
By 31 December 2026, does the 50% duty on listed Canadian goods end, ease or last, and if it lasts, what happens to Canada's sales to the US on those lines?
Our call 28% · unlikely · confidence not registered
For the outcome: the duty lasts, US-bound sales cut (F-0159)
- Resolves by 31 Dec 2026
- Significance High (value 14.4, week of 26 Oct 2026)
- Reach 14 of 36 countries read are High; 13 Medium
- Adverse outcomes together 70% (F-0158 to F-0161)
The other side
- Shift on recordSingapore is one of the five CPTPP members Q-022 measures as redirect markets; Canada's exports there rose 41.7% in 2025, to C$3.19bn.Strature country reading: Singapore, US tariffs on Canada (approved 2026-10-06)
- Upside questionResolves if, by 2026-12-31, an instrument or all-importer court order (after 2026-09-30) ends or suspends collection of the 50% Section 338 duty on products of Canada on every listed line (our estimate, scored when it resolves)Strature forecast register, F-0156 (Q-022)
- Upside questionResolves if, by 2026-12-31, the Section 338 duty has not ended but an instrument or all-importer court order (after 2026-09-30) lowers or suspends it on a line, lifts or narrows a ban, restores a carve-out, or cuts the listed classifications on net (our estimate, scored when it resolves)Strature forecast register, F-0157 (Q-022)
General information, not advice.
#5Question set · Q-021
By 31 October 2027, will a fund we track commit C$1bn or more to a new Canadian build, with or without a government term, and if not, what moves instead?
Our call 27% · unlikely · confidence not registered
For the outcome: a standstill (F-0155)
- Resolves by 31 Oct 2027
- Significance Medium (value 5.7, week of 26 Oct 2026)
- Reach 8 of 13 countries read are High; 4 Medium
- Adverse outcomes together 57% (F-0153 to F-0155)
The other side
- Shift on recordAbu Dhabi capital has also bought outside the framework: Mubadala's 2025 purchase of CI Financial, at about C$12.1bn of enterprise value (commentary source). Q-021 does not count it, as it is not infrastructure.Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, US tariffs on Canada (approved 2026-10-06)
- New capacityMubadala Capital closed its C$4.6bn purchase of CI Financial's shares on 12 Aug 2025, an enterprise value of C$12.1bn. It is an asset manager, not a project.Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, Canada capital projects (approved 2026-10-06)
- OpeningBloomberg reported in Sep 2026, citing unnamed sources, that ADNOC's XRG was in talks to take a stake in LNG Canada; no deal announcement was found in early Oct 2026 (press report).Strature country reading: United Arab Emirates, Canada capital projects (approved 2026-10-06)
And 37 more lines from our readings.
General information, not advice.
#6Forecast · F-0174
Will Canada's real GDP fall in two consecutive quarters at any point up to the fourth quarter of 2027, on Statistics Canada's first release?
Our call 25% · unlikely · confidence not registered
- Resolves by 31 Dec 2027
- Significance Medium (value 1.9, week of 26 Oct 2026)
- Reach Reach provisional: no country readings yet
How to read it
Each circle is one question from our forecast register, placed where it sits: the subject country of its brief, or the strait it is about. Circle area follows the Top 10 value: our probability of the adverse outcomes times their reach. The red arc is that probability; the number is the rank. A dashed rim means the reach is provisional.
Significance follows the weekly Top 10 value: our probability times the countries our readings rate High, plus half of those rated Medium. High from 10, Medium from 1, Low under 1. Shown only from a signed-off week. Reach counts the countries our readings rate High, plus half of those rated Medium. Where we have no country readings for a risk yet, reach is the number of countries its forecast names, each counted as Medium, and the item says “reach provisional”. Only open forecasts that resolve within the next 24 months are ranked. A risk is shown only when its probability times its reach comes to 1 or more, so the list can hold fewer than ten.
Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Lines on the straits view join a strait to the countries our readings rate High for the risks that pass it: links, not shipping routes.
General information, not advice. The other side quotes our readings and the register: who is placed to gain on the record, never a call to act.
Forecasts are general research on public events and policy; they are not investment, legal or tax advice.